October 3, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower this morning on softer PMI data out of Europe (September figures revised lower). Some analysts are also taking note that the Euro 5-year, 5-year forward inflation rate just hit a new record low of 1.13%.  Fed leaders have traditionally used the US dollar version of this measure of market inflation expectations, and while the US is not a historic low currently, it’s trending in that direction. Investors are awaiting the release of US services PMI data later this morning. The decline in manufacturing PMI earlier this week made big headlines, but manufacturing is still a small portion of the US economy. If non-manufacturing (services) PMI dips below 50, it will be a more relevant indicator of the current trajectory of the US economy.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/3/2019Challenger Job Cuts YoY-24.80%39.00%
10/3/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k219k213k215k
10/3/2019Continuing Claims1654k1651k1650k1656k
10/3/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.7
10/3/2019Markit US Services PMI50.950.9
10/3/2019Markit US Composite PMI51
10/3/2019ISM Non-Manufacturing Index5556.4
10/3/2019Factory Orders-0.20%1.40%
10/3/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%
10/3/2019Durable Goods Orders0.20%
10/3/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.50%
10/3/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.20%
10/3/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%
10/4/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls148k130k
10/4/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
10/4/2019Change in Private Payrolls130k96k
10/4/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls3k3k
10/4/2019Unemployment Rate3.70%3.70%
10/4/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.40%
10/4/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.20%3.20%
10/4/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
10/4/2019Labor Force Participation Rate63.20%63.20%
10/4/2019Underemployment Rate7.20%
10/4/2019Trade Balance-$54.5b-$54.0b

 

 

 

 

 

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