October 3, 2019 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower this morning on softer PMI data out of Europe (September figures revised lower). Some analysts are also taking note that the Euro 5-year, 5-year forward inflation rate just hit a new record low of 1.13%.  Fed leaders have traditionally used the US dollar version of this measure of market inflation expectations, and while the US is not a historic low currently, it’s trending in that direction. Investors are awaiting the release of US services PMI data later this morning. The decline in manufacturing PMI earlier this week made big headlines, but manufacturing is still a small portion of the US economy. If non-manufacturing (services) PMI dips below 50, it will be a more relevant indicator of the current trajectory of the US economy.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

10/3/2019Challenger Job Cuts YoY-24.80%39.00%
10/3/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k219k213k215k
10/3/2019Continuing Claims1654k1651k1650k1656k
10/3/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.7
10/3/2019Markit US Services PMI50.950.9
10/3/2019Markit US Composite PMI51
10/3/2019ISM Non-Manufacturing Index5556.4
10/3/2019Factory Orders-0.20%1.40%
10/3/2019Factory Orders Ex Trans0.30%
10/3/2019Durable Goods Orders0.20%
10/3/2019Durables Ex Transportation0.50%
10/3/2019Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.20%
10/3/2019Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.40%
10/4/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls148k130k
10/4/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
10/4/2019Change in Private Payrolls130k96k
10/4/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls3k3k
10/4/2019Unemployment Rate3.70%3.70%
10/4/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.40%
10/4/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.20%3.20%
10/4/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
10/4/2019Labor Force Participation Rate63.20%63.20%
10/4/2019Underemployment Rate7.20%
10/4/2019Trade Balance-$54.5b-$54.0b






Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.