October 3, 2022 Headlines

Financial markets are responding favorably to the U.K.’s decision to walk back the recently announced tax cuts for top earners. Treasury yields are 9-14 basis points lower across the curve, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.77% as of 8:48am EDT. The U.K. tax cuts, announced a little over a week ago, were the primary source of last week’s volatility in global rate markets as investors questioned the timing of such a decision by the new government with inflation at historically high levels. The Bank of England was forced to announce emergency purchases of long-term Gilts in an effort to stabilize its government bond market. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by tomorrow’s job openings data (JOLTS) for August and Friday’s monthly jobs report for September. Job openings are expected to have held above 11 million for the 9th consecutive month according to Bloomberg median economist estimates, and nonfarm payrolls are expected to have added 265,000 jobs last month, down slightly from the 315,000 added in August. S&P PMI data will be released on Wednesday, and several Fed leaders are scheduled to speak this week, beginning with Raphael Bostic (Atlanta Fed) and John Williams (NY Fed) today.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/3/2022 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 51.8 — 51.8 —
10/3/2022 Construction Spending MoM -0.30% — -0.40% —
10/3/2022 ISM Manufacturing 52 — 52.8 —
10/3/2022 ISM Prices Paid 51.8 — 52.5 —
10/3/2022 ISM New Orders 50.5 — 51.3 —
10/3/2022 ISM Employment 53 — 54.2 —
10/3/2022 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 13.55m — 13.18m —
10/4/2022 Factory Orders 0.00% — -1.00% —
10/4/2022 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.20% — -1.10% —
10/4/2022 Durable Goods Orders -0.20% — -0.20% —
10/4/2022 Durables Ex Transportation 0.20% — 0.20% —
10/4/2022 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air — — 1.30% —
10/4/2022 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air — — 0.30% —
10/4/2022 JOLTS Job Openings 11088k — 11239k —
10/5/2022 MBA Mortgage Applications — — -3.70% —
10/5/2022 ADP Employment Change 200k — 132k —
10/5/2022 Trade Balance -$67.7b — -$70.7b —
10/5/2022 S&P Global US Services PMI 49.2 — 49.2 —
10/5/2022 S&P Global US Composite PMI 49.3 — 49.3 —
10/5/2022 ISM Services Index 56 — 56.9 —
10/6/2022 Challenger Job Cuts YoY — — 30.30% —
10/6/2022 Initial Jobless Claims 203k — 193k —
10/6/2022 Continuing Claims 1350k — 1347k —
10/7/2022 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision — — -107k —
10/7/2022 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 265k — 315k —
10/7/2022 Change in Private Payrolls 275k — 308k —
10/7/2022 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 20k — 22k —
10/7/2022 Unemployment Rate 3.70% — 3.70% —
10/7/2022 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.30% — 0.30% —
10/7/2022 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 5.10% — 5.20% —
10/7/2022 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.5 — 34.5 —
10/7/2022 Labor Force Participation Rate 62.40% — 62.40% —
10/7/2022 Underemployment Rate — — 7.00% —
10/7/2022 Wholesale Inventories MoM 1.30% — 1.30% —
10/7/2022 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 0.50% — -1.40% —
10/7/2022 Consumer Credit $25.000b — $23.811b —

 

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