October 3, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields continue to march higher on the long-end of the curve with the 10-year up 5 bps to 4.72%. Equities are also selling off as investors grapple with the impact of higher borrowing costs, futures on the Dow and S&P are both pointing to a lower open this morning. Later this morning we’ll get data on job openings followed by jobless claims on Thursday and the payrolls number on Friday. The Bloomberg median forecast is for an increase of 170,000 and for the unemployment rate to dip to 3.7% from 3.8%.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
10/03/23	JOLTS Job Openings	8815k	—	8827k	—
10/03/23	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	15.40m	—	15.04m	—
10/04/23	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-1.30%	—
10/04/23	ADP Employment Change	150k	—	177k	—
10/04/23	S&P Global US Services PMI	50.2	—	50.2	—
10/04/23	S&P Global US Composite PMI	50.1	—	50.1	—
10/04/23	Factory Orders	0.30%	—	-2.10%	—
10/04/23	Factory Orders Ex Trans	0.20%	—	0.80%	—
10/04/23	Durable Goods Orders	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
10/04/23	Durables Ex Transportation	0.40%	—	0.40%	—
10/04/23	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.90%	—
10/04/23	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.70%	—
10/04/23	ISM Services Index	53.5	—	54.5	—
10/04/23	ISM Services Prices Paid	—	—	58.9	—
10/04/23	ISM Services Employment	—	—	54.7	—
10/04/23	ISM Services New Orders	—	—	57.5	—
10/05/23	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	266.90%	—
10/05/23	Trade Balance	-$59.9b	—	-$65.0b	—
10/05/23	Initial Jobless Claims	210k	—	204k	—
10/05/23	Continuing Claims	1675k	—	1670k	—
10/06/23	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	170k	—	187k	—
10/06/23	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	-110k	—
10/06/23	Change in Private Payrolls	155k	—	179k	—
10/06/23	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	5k	—	16k	—
10/06/23	Unemployment Rate	3.70%	—	3.80%	—
10/06/23	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.20%	—
10/06/23	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	4.30%	—	4.30%	—
10/06/23	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	—	34.4	—
10/06/23	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.80%	—	62.80%	—
10/06/23	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.10%	—
10/06/23	Consumer Credit	$11.700b	—	$10.399b	—

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