October 3, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields continue to march higher on the long-end of the curve with the 10-year up 5 bps to 4.72%. Equities are also selling off as investors grapple with the impact of higher borrowing costs, futures on the Dow and S&P are both pointing to a lower open this morning. Later this morning we’ll get data on job openings followed by jobless claims on Thursday and the payrolls number on Friday. The Bloomberg median forecast is for an increase of 170,000 and for the unemployment rate to dip to 3.7% from 3.8%.

Hafizan Hamzah
Senior Director, Investment Management Group

10/03/23JOLTS Job Openings8815k8827k
10/03/23Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.40m15.04m
10/04/23MBA Mortgage Applications-1.30%
10/04/23ADP Employment Change150k177k
10/04/23S&P Global US Services PMI50.250.2
10/04/23S&P Global US Composite PMI50.150.1
10/04/23Factory Orders0.30%-2.10%
10/04/23Factory Orders Ex Trans0.20%0.80%
10/04/23Durable Goods Orders0.20%0.20%
10/04/23Durables Ex Transportation0.40%0.40%
10/04/23Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.90%
10/04/23Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.70%
10/04/23ISM Services Index53.554.5
10/04/23ISM Services Prices Paid58.9
10/04/23ISM Services Employment54.7
10/04/23ISM Services New Orders57.5
10/05/23Challenger Job Cuts YoY266.90%
10/05/23Trade Balance-$59.9b-$65.0b
10/05/23Initial Jobless Claims210k204k
10/05/23Continuing Claims1675k1670k
10/06/23Change in Nonfarm Payrolls170k187k
10/06/23Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-110k
10/06/23Change in Private Payrolls155k179k
10/06/23Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k16k
10/06/23Unemployment Rate3.70%3.80%
10/06/23Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
10/06/23Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.30%4.30%
10/06/23Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
10/06/23Labor Force Participation Rate62.80%62.80%
10/06/23Underemployment Rate7.10%
10/06/23Consumer Credit$11.700b$10.399b


Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.