Treasury prices are drifting higher following a tame PCE report and more rumors that Jerome (Jay) Powell will be the Trump nominee for Fed Chair.  The dollar is also weaker today on the Powell speculation (viewed as status quo choice), and S&P 500 futures are currently down 5 points.  Global equity markets were mixed overnight following a relatively quiet weekend from a headlines perspective. Economic data was relatively strong last week in both the U.S. and Europe, capped off with Friday’s U.S. Q3 GDP report.

Personal income for September matched expectations with a 0.4% gain, and personal spending exceeded expectations on both a nominal and inflation-adjusted basis (1% and 0.6%, respectively). For the inflation data, the PCE Deflator (headline) rose 0.4% from the prior month, but PCE Core was more tepid, rising just 0.1% for the fifth consecutive month.  On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE was up 1.6% (1.4% the prior month), and core PCE was unchanged at 1.3%.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPrior
10/30Personal Income0.40%0.40%0.20%
10/30Personal Spending0.90%1.00%0.10%
10/30Real Personal Spending0.50%0.60%-0.10%
10/30PCE Deflator MoM0.40%0.40%0.20%
10/30PCE Deflator YoY1.60%1.60%1.40%
10/30PCE Core MoM0.10%0.10%0.10%
10/30PCE Core YoY1.30%1.30%1.30%
10/30Dallas Fed Manf. Activity2121.3
10/31Employment Cost Index0.70%0.50%
10/31S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.40%0.35%
10/31S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA5.95%5.81%
10/31S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index201.99
10/31S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA5.94%
10/31S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index194.1
10/31Chicago Purchasing Manager6065.2
10/31Conf. Board Consumer Confidence121119.8
10/31Conf. Board Present Situation146.1
10/31Conf. Board Expectations102.2
11/01MBA Mortgage Applications-4.60%
11/01ADP Employment Change200k135k
11/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI54.554.5
11/01ISM Manufacturing59.460.8
11/01ISM Prices Paid67.571.5
11/01ISM New Orders64.6
11/01ISM Employment60.3
11/01Construction Spending MoM-0.20%0.50%
11/01FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.25%1.25%
11/01FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.00%1.00%
11/01Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.50m18.47m
11/01Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales13.70m14.33m
11/02Challenger Job Cuts YoY-27.00%
11/02Initial Jobless Claims235k233k
11/02Continuing Claims1894k1893k
11/02Nonfarm Productivity2.70%1.50%
11/02Unit Labor Costs0.40%0.20%
11/02Bloomberg Consumer Comfort51
11/03Change in Nonfarm Payrolls312k-33k
11/03Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-38k
11/03Change in Private Payrolls301k-40k
11/03Change in Manufact. Payrolls17k-1k
11/03Unemployment Rate4.20%4.20%
11/03Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.50%
11/03Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.70%2.90%
11/03Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
11/03Labor Force Participation Rate63.10%63.10%
11/03Underemployment Rate8.30%
11/03Trade Balance-$43.2b-$42.4b
11/03ISM Non-Manf. Composite58.559.8
11/03Factory Orders1.20%1.20%
11/03Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%
11/03Durable Goods Orders2.20%
11/03Durables Ex Transportation0.70%
11/03Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.30%
11/03Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.70%
11/03Markit US Services PMI55.955.9
11/03Markit US Composite PMI55.7