October 30, 2019 Headlines

Trading activity continues to be light as market participants patiently wait for the FOMC to conclude their policy meeting this afternoon. Officials are expected to cut interest rates for the third straight meeting to provide insurance against downside risks from trade uncertainty and slowing global growth despite the positive domestic data trend. The policy divide between hawks and doves have started to become more evident of late. In the last meeting, there were three dissenting votes, two that voted for no change, and one official that wanted a 50bps cut to the fed funds rate. All the focus will be on the updated dot plot, FOMC statement, and Powell’s press conference for indications on future policy action.

This morning markets received their first reading of Q3’s GDP. The US consumer has continued to support the economy with personal consumption increasing by 2.9% in the quarter. While this is down from the 4.6% print in the previous quarter, the increase beat surveyed projections. The net contribution from other sectors was essentially zero as business investment and exports have been sluggish. As a whole, real GDP growth was 1.9% QoQ beating expectations of 1.6%.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

10/28/2019Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index0-0.450.10.15
10/28/2019Advance Goods Trade Balance-$73.5b-$70.4b-$72.8b-$73.1b
10/28/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.20%-0.30%0.20%0.00%
10/28/2019Retail Inventories MoM0.20%0.30%0.00%-0.20%
10/28/2019Dallas Fed Manf. Activity1-5.11.5
10/29/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA-0.10%-0.16%0.02%0.04%
10/29/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA2.10%2.03%2.00%2.03%
10/29/2019S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index218.14218218.05
10/29/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA3.17%3.18%3.14%
10/29/2019S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index212.06211.72211.63
10/29/2019Conf. Board Consumer Confidence128125.9125.1126.3
10/29/2019Conf. Board Present Situation172.3169170.6
10/29/2019Conf. Board Expectations94.995.896.8
10/29/2019Pending Home Sales MoM0.90%1.50%1.60%1.40%
10/29/2019Pending Home Sales NSA YoY3.60%6.30%1.10%1.00%
10/30/2019MBA Mortgage Applications0.60%-11.90%
10/30/2019ADP Employment Change110k125k135k93k
10/30/2019GDP Annualized QoQ1.60%1.90%2.00%
10/30/2019Personal Consumption2.60%2.90%4.60%
10/30/2019GDP Price Index1.90%1.70%2.40%
10/30/2019Core PCE QoQ2.20%2.20%1.90%
10/30/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.75%2.00%
10/30/2019FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.50%1.75%
10/30/2019Interest Rate on Excess Reserves1.55%1.80%
10/31/2019Challenger Job Cuts YoY-24.80%
10/31/2019Employment Cost Index0.70%0.60%
10/31/2019Personal Income0.30%0.40%
10/31/2019Personal Spending0.30%0.10%
10/31/2019Real Personal Spending0.20%0.10%
10/31/2019PCE Deflator MoM0.00%0.00%
10/31/2019PCE Deflator YoY1.40%1.40%
10/31/2019Initial Jobless Claims215k212k
10/31/2019Continuing Claims1679k1682k
10/31/2019PCE Core Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%
10/31/2019PCE Core Deflator YoY1.70%1.80%
10/31/2019MNI Chicago PMI4847.1
10/31/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort63.4
11/1/2019Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
11/1/2019Change in Nonfarm Payrolls85k136k
11/1/2019Change in Private Payrolls80k114k
11/1/2019Change in Manufact. Payrolls-55k-2k
11/1/2019Unemployment Rate3.60%3.50%
11/1/2019Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.00%
11/1/2019Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.00%2.90%
11/1/2019Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
11/1/2019Labor Force Participation Rate63.10%63.20%
11/1/2019Underemployment Rate6.90%
11/1/2019Markit US Manufacturing PMI51.551.5
11/1/2019ISM Manufacturing4947.8
11/1/2019ISM Employment46.3
11/1/2019ISM Prices Paid5049.7
11/1/2019ISM New Orders47.3
11/1/2019Construction Spending MoM0.20%0.10%
11/1/2019Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.00m17.19m






















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