October 30, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are leaking higher again to start the week following a relatively quiet overnight session. The big economic event for this week will be the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, but perhaps more important for overall rates will be this afternoon’s updated quarterly refunding announcement from the Treasury department. On July 31, it estimated Q4 borrowing needs of $852 billion, but the market is somewhat anxious that estimated funding needs could be increased today due to a worsening budget deficit. Worsening supply and demand technicals have contributed to the 150-basis point sell off in intermediate and long-end yields since early May. Beyond Wednesday’s FOMC decision, the October jobs report will be released on Friday.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/30/23Dallas Fed Manf. Activity-16-18.1
10/31/23Employment Cost Index1.00%1.00%
10/31/23FHFA House Price Index MoM0.50%0.80%
10/31/23S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.70%0.87%
10/31/23S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA1.60%0.13%
10/31/23S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA0.98%
10/31/23MNI Chicago PMI4544.1
10/31/23Conf. Board Consumer Confidence100103
10/31/23Conf. Board Present Situation147.1
10/31/23Conf. Board Expectations73.7
10/31/23Dallas Fed Services Activity-8.6
11/1/23MBA Mortgage Applications-1.00%
11/1/23ADP Employment Change150k89k
11/1/23S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI5050
11/1/23Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.50%
11/1/23JOLTS Job Openings9265k9610k
11/1/23ISM Manufacturing4949
11/1/23ISM Prices Paid4543.8
11/1/23ISM Employment51.2
11/1/23ISM New Orders49.2
11/1/23FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)5.50%5.50%
11/1/23FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)5.25%5.25%
11/1/23Interest on Reserve Balances Rate5.40%5.40%
11/1/23Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.50m15.67m
11/2/23Challenger Job Cuts YoY58.20%
11/2/23Nonfarm Productivity4.30%3.50%
11/2/23Unit Labor Costs0.70%2.20%
11/2/23Initial Jobless Claims210k210k
11/2/23Continuing Claims1780k1790k
11/2/23Factory Orders1.90%1.20%
11/2/23Factory Orders Ex Trans1.40%
11/2/23Durable Goods Orders4.70%
11/2/23Durables Ex Transportation0.50%
11/2/23Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%
11/2/23Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.00%
11/3/23Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
11/3/23Change in Nonfarm Payrolls190k336k
11/3/23Change in Private Payrolls150k263k
11/3/23Change in Manufact. Payrolls-8k17k
11/3/23Unemployment Rate3.80%3.80%
11/3/23Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
11/3/23Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.00%4.20%
11/3/23Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
11/3/23Labor Force Participation Rate62.80%62.80%
11/3/23Underemployment Rate7.00%
11/3/23S&P Global US Services PMI5150.9
11/3/23S&P Global US Composite PMI51
11/3/23ISM Services Index5353.6
11/3/23ISM Services Prices Paid58.9
11/3/23ISM Services Employment53.4
11/3/23ISM Services New Orders51.8

 

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

Recent Articles

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.