Treasury prices are lower across the curve amid a modestly improved tone in risk markets. The S&P 500 closed 66 bps lower yesterday, but the weakness in stocks continues to be more concentrated in the tech sector. As such, investors are anxiously anticipating the release of Q3 earnings reports from Facebook and Apple after today’s market close. S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.5%, and European equity indices are mostly lower in response to a disappointing GDP report from Italy (adds to fiscal concerns for the country). President Trump reiterated last night that he expects a “great deal” with China on trade while also threatening more tariffs if it doesn’t happen. Trump and China’s Xi will meet at the G20 summit in late November.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


10/29Personal Income0.40%0.20%0.30%
10/29Personal Spending0.40%0.40%0.30%
10/29Real Personal Spending0.30%0.30%0.20%
10/29PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.10%
10/29PCE Deflator YoY2.00%2.00%2.20%
10/29PCE Core MoM0.10%0.20%0.00%
10/29PCE Core YoY2.00%2.00%2.00%
10/29Dallas Fed Manf. Activity28.129.428.1
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%0.09%
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA5.80%5.92%
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.76
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index205.35
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.00%
10/30Conf. Board Consumer Confidence135.9138.4
10/30Conf. Board Present Situation173.1
10/30Conf. Board Expectations115.3
10/31MBA Mortgage Applications4.90%
10/31ADP Employment Change187k230k
10/31Employment Cost Index0.70%0.60%
10/31Chicago Purchasing Manager6060.4
11/01Challenger Job Cuts YoY70.90%
11/01Nonfarm Productivity2.10%2.90%
11/01Unit Labor Costs1.10%-1.00%
11/01Initial Jobless Claims212k215k
11/01Continuing Claims1640k1636k
11/01Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.1
11/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.855.9
11/01Construction Spending MoM0.00%0.10%
11/01ISM Manufacturing5959.8
11/01ISM Employment58.8
11/01ISM Prices Paid6966.9
11/01ISM New Orders61.8
11/01Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.05m17.40m
11/02Trade Balance-$53.6b-$53.2b
11/02Change in Nonfarm Payrolls195k134k
11/02Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
11/02Change in Private Payrolls190k121k
11/02Change in Manufact. Payrolls16k18k
11/02Unemployment Rate3.70%3.70%
11/02Underemployment Rate7.50%
11/02Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.30%
11/02Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.10%2.80%
11/02Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
11/02Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%62.70%
11/02Factory Orders0.50%2.30%
11/02Factory Orders Ex Trans0.10%
11/02Durable Goods Orders0.80%
11/02Durables Ex Transportation0.10%
11/02Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%
11/02Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.00%