Trading in Treasuries was subdued overnight, Germany was out on holiday, and the market opened this morning essentially unchanged from yesterday’s close. Economic data out of the European Union was mixed, with a disappointing CPI print followed by a positive Q3 GDP figure and an upward revision in the second quarter GDP print. This morning’s employment cost index release, ECI, met expectations of 0.7% and was an increase of 0.2% from the prior quarter. The uptick in the index should give the Fed confidence that the economy is still on track to meet the central bank’s 2% target.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPrior
10/30Personal Income0.40%0.40%0.20%
10/30Personal Spending0.90%1.00%0.10%
10/30Real Personal Spending0.50%0.60%-0.10%
10/30PCE Deflator MoM0.40%0.40%0.20%
10/30PCE Deflator YoY1.60%1.60%1.40%
10/30PCE Core MoM0.10%0.10%0.10%
10/30PCE Core YoY1.30%1.30%1.30%
10/30Dallas Fed Manf. Activity2127.621.3
10/31Employment Cost Index0.70%0.70%0.50%
10/31S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.40%0.45%0.35%
10/31S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA5.93%5.92%5.81%
10/31S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index202.87201.99
10/31S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA6.07%5.94%
10/31S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index195.05194.1
10/31Chicago Purchasing Manager6065.2
10/31Conf. Board Consumer Confidence121.5119.8
10/31Conf. Board Present Situation146.1
10/31Conf. Board Expectations102.2
11/01MBA Mortgage Applications-4.60%
11/01ADP Employment Change200k135k
11/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI54.554.5
11/01ISM Manufacturing59.460.8
11/01ISM Prices Paid67.571.5
11/01ISM New Orders64.6
11/01ISM Employment60.3
11/01Construction Spending MoM-0.10%0.50%
11/01FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)1.25%1.25%
11/01FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)1.00%1.00%
11/01Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.50m18.47m
11/01Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales13.70m14.33m
11/02Challenger Job Cuts YoY-27.00%
11/02Initial Jobless Claims235k233k
11/02Continuing Claims1894k1893k
11/02Nonfarm Productivity2.60%1.50%
11/02Unit Labor Costs0.40%0.20%
11/02Bloomberg Consumer Comfort51
11/03Change in Nonfarm Payrolls312k-33k
11/03Two-Month Payroll Net Revision-38k
11/03Change in Private Payrolls301k-40k
11/03Change in Manufact. Payrolls17k-1k
11/03Unemployment Rate4.20%4.20%
11/03Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.50%
11/03Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.70%2.90%
11/03Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
11/03Labor Force Participation Rate63.10%63.10%
11/03Underemployment Rate8.30%
11/03Trade Balance-$43.2b-$42.4b
11/03ISM Non-Manf. Composite58.559.8
11/03Factory Orders1.20%1.20%
11/03Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%
11/03Durable Goods Orders2.20%
11/03Durables Ex Transportation0.70%
11/03Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air1.30%
11/03Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.70%
11/03Markit US Services PMI55.955.9
11/03Markit US Composite PMI55.7