October 31, 2023 Headlines

The Treasury curve is bull flattening this morning, a rare event in recent weeks, after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was less hawkish than many expected in their recent policy decision. Long-end yields are 4-6 basis points lower to start the day. Rather than a firm increase in its 10-year yield target, the BOJ instead said it will take a more flexible policy approach, with the 1% yield cap now more of a reference point. Japan’s central bankers are essentially exhibiting caution in suppressing inflation pressures they have actively sought for many years, even if at the detriment of its currency valuation. In domestic news, the Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose 1.1% in Q3 versus expectations of a 1% q/q increase (and up from 1% the prior quarter). The overall figure included a 1.2% increase in wages and salaries (+1% in Q2), or +4.6% on a year-over-year basis, and benefits were up 0.9% q/q. While ECI has come down from the peak of 1.4% in Q1 2022, it remains reflective of a relatively tight labor market presenting inflation risks on the margin.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/31/2023Employment Cost Index1.00%1.10%1.00%
10/31/23FHFA House Price Index MoM0.50%0.60%0.80%
10/31/23S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.80%1.01%0.87%0.78%
10/31/23S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA1.75%2.16%0.13%0.15%
10/31/23S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA1.78%2.57%0.98%0.98%
10/31/23MNI Chicago PMI4544.1
10/31/23Conf. Board Consumer Confidence100.5103
10/31/23Conf. Board Present Situation147.1
10/31/23Conf. Board Expectations73.7
10/31/23Dallas Fed Services Activity-8.6
11/1/23MBA Mortgage Applications-1.00%
11/1/23ADP Employment Change150k89k
11/1/23S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI5050
11/1/23Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.50%
11/1/23JOLTS Job Openings9368k9610k
11/1/23ISM Manufacturing4949
11/1/23ISM Prices Paid4543.8
11/1/23ISM Employment50.651.2
11/1/23ISM New Orders49.849.2
11/1/23FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)5.50%5.50%
11/1/23FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)5.25%5.25%
11/1/23Interest on Reserve Balances Rate5.40%5.40%
11/1/23Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.60m15.67m
11/2/23Challenger Job Cuts YoY58.20%
11/2/23Nonfarm Productivity4.30%3.50%
11/2/23Unit Labor Costs0.40%2.20%
11/2/23Initial Jobless Claims212k210k
11/2/23Continuing Claims1800k1790k
11/2/23Factory Orders2.30%1.20%
11/2/23Factory Orders Ex Trans0.80%1.40%
11/2/23Durable Goods Orders4.70%4.70%
11/2/23Durables Ex Transportation0.50%0.50%
11/2/23Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.60%
11/2/23Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.00%
11/3/23Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
11/3/23Change in Nonfarm Payrolls180k336k
11/3/23Change in Private Payrolls145k263k
11/3/23Change in Manufact. Payrolls-10k17k
11/3/23Unemployment Rate3.80%3.80%
11/3/23Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
11/3/23Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.00%4.20%
11/3/23Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
11/3/23Labor Force Participation Rate62.80%62.80%
11/3/23Underemployment Rate7.00%
11/3/23S&P Global US Services PMI50.950.9
11/3/23S&P Global US Composite PMI51
11/3/23ISM Services Index5353.6
11/3/23ISM Services Prices Paid57.158.9
11/3/23ISM Services Employment53.653.4
11/3/23ISM Services New Orders51.551.8
11/7/23Trade Balance-$60.5b-$58.3b
11/7/23Consumer Credit$10.000b-$15.628b

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