October 31, 2023 Headlines

The Treasury curve is bull flattening this morning, a rare event in recent weeks, after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was less hawkish than many expected in their recent policy decision. Long-end yields are 4-6 basis points lower to start the day. Rather than a firm increase in its 10-year yield target, the BOJ instead said it will take a more flexible policy approach, with the 1% yield cap now more of a reference point. Japan’s central bankers are essentially exhibiting caution in suppressing inflation pressures they have actively sought for many years, even if at the detriment of its currency valuation. In domestic news, the Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose 1.1% in Q3 versus expectations of a 1% q/q increase (and up from 1% the prior quarter). The overall figure included a 1.2% increase in wages and salaries (+1% in Q2), or +4.6% on a year-over-year basis, and benefits were up 0.9% q/q. While ECI has come down from the peak of 1.4% in Q1 2022, it remains reflective of a relatively tight labor market presenting inflation risks on the margin.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
10/31/2023	Employment Cost Index	1.00%	1.10%	1.00%	—
10/31/23	FHFA House Price Index MoM	0.50%	0.60%	0.80%	—
10/31/23	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA	0.80%	1.01%	0.87%	0.78%
10/31/23	S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA	1.75%	2.16%	0.13%	0.15%
10/31/23	S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA	1.78%	2.57%	0.98%	0.98%
10/31/23	MNI Chicago PMI	45	—	44.1	—
10/31/23	Conf. Board Consumer Confidence	100.5	—	103	—
10/31/23	Conf. Board Present Situation	—	—	147.1	—
10/31/23	Conf. Board Expectations	—	—	73.7	—
10/31/23	Dallas Fed Services Activity	—	—	-8.6	—
11/1/23	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-1.00%	—
11/1/23	ADP Employment Change	150k	—	89k	—
11/1/23	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI	50	—	50	—
11/1/23	Construction Spending MoM	0.40%	—	0.50%	—
11/1/23	JOLTS Job Openings	9368k	—	9610k	—
11/1/23	ISM Manufacturing	49	—	49	—
11/1/23	ISM Prices Paid	45	—	43.8	—
11/1/23	ISM Employment	50.6	—	51.2	—
11/1/23	ISM New Orders	49.8	—	49.2	—
11/1/23	FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)	5.50%	—	5.50%	—
11/1/23	FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)	5.25%	—	5.25%	—
11/1/23	Interest on Reserve Balances Rate	5.40%	—	5.40%	—
11/1/23	Wards Total Vehicle Sales	15.60m	—	15.67m	—
11/2/23	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	58.20%	—
11/2/23	Nonfarm Productivity	4.30%	—	3.50%	—
11/2/23	Unit Labor Costs	0.40%	—	2.20%	—
11/2/23	Initial Jobless Claims	212k	—	210k	—
11/2/23	Continuing Claims	1800k	—	1790k	—
11/2/23	Factory Orders	2.30%	—	1.20%	—
11/2/23	Factory Orders Ex Trans	0.80%	—	1.40%	—
11/2/23	Durable Goods Orders	4.70%	—	4.70%	—
11/2/23	Durables Ex Transportation	0.50%	—	0.50%	—
11/2/23	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.60%	—
11/2/23	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	—	0.00%	—
11/3/23	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	—	—
11/3/23	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	180k	—	336k	—
11/3/23	Change in Private Payrolls	145k	—	263k	—
11/3/23	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	-10k	—	17k	—
11/3/23	Unemployment Rate	3.80%	—	3.80%	—
11/3/23	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	—	0.20%	—
11/3/23	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	4.00%	—	4.20%	—
11/3/23	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	—	34.4	—
11/3/23	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.80%	—	62.80%	—
11/3/23	Underemployment Rate	—	—	7.00%	—
11/3/23	S&P Global US Services PMI	50.9	—	50.9	—
11/3/23	S&P Global US Composite PMI	—	—	51	—
11/3/23	ISM Services Index	53	—	53.6	—
11/3/23	ISM Services Prices Paid	57.1	—	58.9	—
11/3/23	ISM Services Employment	53.6	—	53.4	—
11/3/23	ISM Services New Orders	51.5	—	51.8	—
11/7/23	Trade Balance	-$60.5b	—	-$58.3b	—
11/7/23	Consumer Credit	$10.000b	—	-$15.628b	—

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