October 31st Headlines

by | Oct 31, 2018 | Beyond the Headlines

Better performance in risk markets is contributing to lower Treasury prices across the curve again today. Essentially all Asian and European markets are higher today (most more than +1.5%), and S&P 500 futures are up 0.8%. With no major macro headlines, some are attributing today’s activity to portfolio rebalancing from balanced fund investors (i.e., buying stocks and selling bonds following weak price performance for equities in October). Corporate earnings reports in the U.S. and Europe over the last 12 hours have been decent, which is also contributing to the positive tone in the markets today.  The ADP employment report for October showed private payrolls adding 227,000 jobs over the month versus expectations of a 187,000 gain. The prior month was revised lower to 218,000 (-12,000).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

 

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/29Personal Income0.40%0.20%0.30%
10/29Personal Spending0.40%0.40%0.30%
10/29Real Personal Spending0.30%0.30%0.20%
10/29PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.10%
10/29PCE Deflator YoY2.00%2.00%2.20%
10/29PCE Core MoM0.10%0.20%0.00%
10/29PCE Core YoY2.00%2.00%2.00%
10/29Dallas Fed Manf. Activity28.129.428.1
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%0.09%0.09%
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA5.80%5.49%5.92%
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index—213.72213.76
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index—205.81205.35
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA—5.77%6.00%
10/30Conf. Board Consumer Confidence135.9137.9138.4
10/30Conf. Board Present Situation—172.8173.1
10/30Conf. Board Expectations—114.6115.3
10/31MBA Mortgage Applications—-2.50%4.90%
10/31ADP Employment Change187k227k230k
10/31Employment Cost Index0.70%0.80%0.60%
10/31Chicago Purchasing Manager60—60.4
11/01Challenger Job Cuts YoY——70.90%
11/01Nonfarm Productivity2.10%—2.90%
11/01Unit Labor Costs1.10%—-1.00%
11/01Initial Jobless Claims212k—215k
11/01Continuing Claims1640k—1636k
11/01Bloomberg Consumer Comfort——60.1
11/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.8—55.9
11/01Construction Spending MoM0.00%—0.10%
11/01ISM Manufacturing59—59.8
11/01ISM Employment——58.8
11/01ISM Prices Paid69—66.9
11/01ISM New Orders——61.8
11/01Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.05m—17.40m
11/02Trade Balance-$53.6b—-$53.2b
11/02Change in Nonfarm Payrolls195k—134k
11/02Two-Month Payroll Net Revision———
11/02Change in Private Payrolls190k—121k
11/02Change in Manufact. Payrolls16k—18k
11/02Unemployment Rate3.70%—3.70%
11/02Underemployment Rate——7.50%
11/02Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%—0.30%
11/02Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.10%—2.80%
11/02Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.5—34.5
11/02Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%—62.70%
11/02Factory Orders0.50%—2.30%
11/02Factory Orders Ex Trans——0.10%
11/02Durable Goods Orders——0.80%
11/02Durables Ex Transportation——0.10%
11/02Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——-0.10%
11/02Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——0.00%