Better performance in risk markets is contributing to lower Treasury prices across the curve again today. Essentially all Asian and European markets are higher today (most more than +1.5%), and S&P 500 futures are up 0.8%. With no major macro headlines, some are attributing today’s activity to portfolio rebalancing from balanced fund investors (i.e., buying stocks and selling bonds following weak price performance for equities in October). Corporate earnings reports in the U.S. and Europe over the last 12 hours have been decent, which is also contributing to the positive tone in the markets today.  The ADP employment report for October showed private payrolls adding 227,000 jobs over the month versus expectations of a 187,000 gain. The prior month was revised lower to 218,000 (-12,000).

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group


10/29Personal Income0.40%0.20%0.30%
10/29Personal Spending0.40%0.40%0.30%
10/29Real Personal Spending0.30%0.30%0.20%
10/29PCE Deflator MoM0.10%0.10%0.10%
10/29PCE Deflator YoY2.00%2.00%2.20%
10/29PCE Core MoM0.10%0.20%0.00%
10/29PCE Core YoY2.00%2.00%2.00%
10/29Dallas Fed Manf. Activity28.129.428.1
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA0.10%0.09%0.09%
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA5.80%5.49%5.92%
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City NSA Index213.72213.76
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI NSA Index205.81205.35
10/30S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA5.77%6.00%
10/30Conf. Board Consumer Confidence135.9137.9138.4
10/30Conf. Board Present Situation172.8173.1
10/30Conf. Board Expectations114.6115.3
10/31MBA Mortgage Applications-2.50%4.90%
10/31ADP Employment Change187k227k230k
10/31Employment Cost Index0.70%0.80%0.60%
10/31Chicago Purchasing Manager6060.4
11/01Challenger Job Cuts YoY70.90%
11/01Nonfarm Productivity2.10%2.90%
11/01Unit Labor Costs1.10%-1.00%
11/01Initial Jobless Claims212k215k
11/01Continuing Claims1640k1636k
11/01Bloomberg Consumer Comfort60.1
11/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.855.9
11/01Construction Spending MoM0.00%0.10%
11/01ISM Manufacturing5959.8
11/01ISM Employment58.8
11/01ISM Prices Paid6966.9
11/01ISM New Orders61.8
11/01Wards Total Vehicle Sales17.05m17.40m
11/02Trade Balance-$53.6b-$53.2b
11/02Change in Nonfarm Payrolls195k134k
11/02Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
11/02Change in Private Payrolls190k121k
11/02Change in Manufact. Payrolls16k18k
11/02Unemployment Rate3.70%3.70%
11/02Underemployment Rate7.50%
11/02Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.20%0.30%
11/02Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.10%2.80%
11/02Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.5
11/02Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%62.70%
11/02Factory Orders0.50%2.30%
11/02Factory Orders Ex Trans0.10%
11/02Durable Goods Orders0.80%
11/02Durables Ex Transportation0.10%
11/02Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.10%
11/02Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.00%