Treasuries rallied overnight on better buying from Asian investors, but prices have now pulled back on supply pressures from Europe and are unchanged versus yesterday’s close.  Asian equity markets were mostly higher, although a few markets were still closed for holiday (China, Taiwan, and S. Korea).  Most European equity indices are lower as the Catalonia situation continues to weigh somewhat on investor sentiment, and S&P 500 futures are down 3 points. The debate in the markets around who will be nominated to be the next Fed Chair remains lively. The Wall Street Journal’s Editorial Board is recommending that the White House steer clear of current Chair Janet Yellen and Governor Jerome Powell because both represent the status quo for post-crisis monetary policies.  Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, who is reported to be under consideration as well, is drawing criticism from both conservatives and liberals for various reasons, and a wildcard candidate suggested by bond manager Jeff Gundlach is Neel Kashkari, who currently heads the Minneapolis Fed and is considered one of the more dovish members of the FOMC.

Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group

Date Event   Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/2/17 Markit US Manufacturing PMI Sep F 53 53.1 53
10/2/17 ISM Manufacturing Sep 58.1 60.8 58.8
10/2/17 ISM Prices Paid Sep 63 71.5 62
10/2/17 ISM New Orders Sep 64.6 60.3
10/2/17 ISM Employment Sep 60.3 59.9
10/2/17 Construction Spending MoM Aug 0.40% 0.50% -0.60% -1.20%
10/3/17 Wards Total Vehicle Sales Sep 17.15m 18.47m 16.03m
10/3/17 Wards Domestic Vehicle Sales Sep 13.00m 14.33m 12.48m
10/4/17 MBA Mortgage Applications 29-Sep -0.40% -0.50%
10/4/17 ADP Employment Change Sep 135k 135k 237k 228k
10/4/17 Markit US Services PMI Sep F 55.1 55.3 55.1
10/4/17 Markit US Composite PMI Sep F 54.8 54.6
10/4/17 ISM Non-Manf. Composite Sep 55.5 59.8 55.3
10/5/17 Challenger Job Cuts YoY Sep 5.10%
10/5/17 Initial Jobless Claims 30-Sep 265k 272k
10/5/17 Continuing Claims 23-Sep 1950k 1934k
10/5/17 Trade Balance Aug -$42.7b -$43.7b
10/5/17 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 1-Oct 51.6
10/5/17 Factory Orders Aug 1.00% -3.30%
10/5/17 Factory Orders Ex Trans Aug 0.50%
10/5/17 Durable Goods Orders Aug F 1.70% 1.70%
10/5/17 Durables Ex Transportation Aug F 0.20%
10/5/17 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air Aug F 0.90%
10/5/17 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air Aug F 0.70%
10/6/17 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Sep 80k 156k
10/6/17 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision Sep
10/6/17 Change in Private Payrolls Sep 74k 165k
10/6/17 Change in Manufact. Payrolls Sep 8k 36k
10/6/17 Unemployment Rate Sep 4.40% 4.40%
10/6/17 Average Hourly Earnings MoM Sep 0.30% 0.10%
10/6/17 Average Hourly Earnings YoY Sep 2.50% 2.50%
10/6/17 Average Weekly Hours All Employees Sep 34.4 34.4
10/6/17 Labor Force Participation Rate Sep 62.90%
10/6/17 Underemployment Rate Sep 8.60%
10/6/17 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM Aug 0.00% -0.10%
10/6/17 Wholesale Inventories MoM Aug F 1.00% 1.00%
10/6/17 Consumer Credit Aug $15.540b $18.499b