October 4, 2019 Headlines

Treasuries were initially stronger in the overnight session on low volume as market participants waited for the upcoming payroll data. Following a series of disappointing economic data earlier in the week, both domestic and globally, fed funds futures have started to increase the odds of an October rate cut. The release of the payrolls report did little to sway the market one way or another as backward revisions balanced out the lower than expected headline number of 136k jobs compared to the 145k consensus.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
9/30/2019 MNI Chicago PMI 50 47.1 50.4
9/30/2019 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity 1 1.5 2.7
10/1/2019 Markit US Manufacturing PMI 51 51.1 51
10/1/2019 ISM Manufacturing 50 47.8 49.1
10/1/2019 ISM Employment 46.3 47.4
10/1/2019 ISM Prices Paid 50.5 49.7 46
10/1/2019 ISM New Orders 47.3 47.2
10/1/2019 Construction Spending MoM 0.50% 0.10% 0.10% 0.00%
10/1/2019 Wards Total Vehicle Sales 17.00m 17.19m 16.97m
10/2/2019 MBA Mortgage Applications 8.10% -10.10%
10/2/2019 ADP Employment Change 140k 135k 195k 157k
10/3/2019 Challenger Job Cuts YoY -24.80% 39.00%
10/3/2019 Initial Jobless Claims 215k 219k 213k 215k
10/3/2019 Continuing Claims 1654k 1651k 1650k 1656k
10/3/2019 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 62 61.7
10/3/2019 Markit US Services PMI 50.9 50.9 50.9
10/3/2019 Markit US Composite PMI 51 51
10/3/2019 ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 55 52.6 56.4
10/3/2019 Factory Orders -0.20% -0.10% 1.40%
10/3/2019 Factory Orders Ex Trans 0.00% 0.30% 0.20%
10/3/2019 Durable Goods Orders 0.20% 0.20%
10/3/2019 Durables Ex Transportation 0.50% 0.50%
10/3/2019 Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air -0.40% -0.20%
10/3/2019 Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air 0.30% 0.40%
10/4/2019 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls 145k 136k 130k 168k
10/4/2019 Two-Month Payroll Net Revision 45k
10/4/2019 Change in Private Payrolls 130k 114k 96k 122k
10/4/2019 Change in Manufact. Payrolls 3k -2k 3k 2k
10/4/2019 Unemployment Rate 3.70% 3.50% 3.70%
10/4/2019 Average Hourly Earnings MoM 0.20% 0.00% 0.40%
10/4/2019 Average Hourly Earnings YoY 3.20% 2.90% 3.20%
10/4/2019 Average Weekly Hours All Employees 34.4 34.4 34.4
10/4/2019 Labor Force Participation Rate 63.20% 63.20% 63.20%
10/4/2019 Underemployment Rate 6.90% 7.20%
10/4/2019 Trade Balance -$54.5b -$54.9b -$54.0b







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