October 5, 2021 Headlines

Risk markets were modestly better overnight, and long-end Treasury yields are leaking higher amid higher oil and other commodity prices. Regarding rising commodity prices, the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks spot prices on broad commodity prices, set another record high yesterday. The index, which began tracking prices in January 1960, is now up 95% since mid-March 2020 as strong demand and supply chain bottlenecks amid the global reopening drive prices higher. Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles will be discussing Libor transition this morning at the annual SFIG securitization conference in Las Vegas.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurv(M)ActualPriorRevised
10/04/21Factory Orders1.00%1.20%0.40%0.70%
10/04/21Factory Orders Ex Trans0.40%0.50%0.80%0.90%
10/04/21Durable Goods Orders1.80%1.80%1.80%
10/04/21Durables Ex Transportation0.20%0.30%0.20%
10/04/21Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.50%0.60%0.50%
10/04/21Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.80%0.70%
10/05/21Trade Balance-$70.8b-$73.3b-$70.1b-$70.3b
10/05/21Markit US Services PMI54.454.4
10/05/21Markit US Composite PMI54.5
10/05/21ISM Services Index59.961.7
10/06/21MBA Mortgage Applications-1.10%
10/06/21ADP Employment Change430k374k
10/07/21Challenger Job Cuts YoY-86.40%
10/07/21Initial Jobless Claims349k362k
10/07/21Continuing Claims2765k2802k
10/07/21Langer Consumer Comfort54.7
10/07/21Consumer Credit$17.500b$17.004b
10/08/21Change in Nonfarm Payrolls488k235k
10/08/21Two-Month Payroll Net Revision134k
10/08/21Change in Private Payrolls450k243k
10/08/21Change in Manufact. Payrolls25k37k
10/08/21Unemployment Rate5.10%5.20%
10/08/21Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.40%0.60%
10/08/21Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.60%4.30%
10/08/21Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.734.7
10/08/21Labor Force Participation Rate61.70%61.70%
10/08/21Underemployment Rate8.80%
10/08/21Wholesale Inventories MoM1.20%1.20%
10/08/21Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.80%2.00%

 

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