October 5, 2021 Headlines

Risk markets were modestly better overnight, and long-end Treasury yields are leaking higher amid higher oil and other commodity prices. Regarding rising commodity prices, the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index, which tracks spot prices on broad commodity prices, set another record high yesterday. The index, which began tracking prices in January 1960, is now up 95% since mid-March 2020 as strong demand and supply chain bottlenecks amid the global reopening drive prices higher. Fed Vice Chair Randal Quarles will be discussing Libor transition this morning at the annual SFIG securitization conference in Las Vegas.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Surv(M)	Actual	Prior	Revised
10/04/21	Factory Orders	1.00%	1.20%	0.40%	0.70%
10/04/21	Factory Orders Ex Trans	0.40%	0.50%	0.80%	0.90%
10/04/21	Durable Goods Orders	1.80%	1.80%	1.80%	—
10/04/21	Durables Ex Transportation	0.20%	0.30%	0.20%	—
10/04/21	Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air	0.50%	0.60%	0.50%	—
10/04/21	Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air	—	0.80%	0.70%	—
10/05/21	Trade Balance	-$70.8b	-$73.3b	-$70.1b	-$70.3b
10/05/21	Markit US Services PMI	54.4	—	54.4	—
10/05/21	Markit US Composite PMI	—	—	54.5	—
10/05/21	ISM Services Index	59.9	—	61.7	—
10/06/21	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-1.10%	—
10/06/21	ADP Employment Change	430k	—	374k	—
10/07/21	Challenger Job Cuts YoY	—	—	-86.40%	—
10/07/21	Initial Jobless Claims	349k	—	362k	—
10/07/21	Continuing Claims	2765k	—	2802k	—
10/07/21	Langer Consumer Comfort	—	—	54.7	—
10/07/21	Consumer Credit	$17.500b	—	$17.004b	—
10/08/21	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	488k	—	235k	—
10/08/21	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	—	134k	—
10/08/21	Change in Private Payrolls	450k	—	243k	—
10/08/21	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	25k	—	37k	—
10/08/21	Unemployment Rate	5.10%	—	5.20%	—
10/08/21	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.40%	—	0.60%	—
10/08/21	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	4.60%	—	4.30%	—
10/08/21	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.7	—	34.7	—
10/08/21	Labor Force Participation Rate	61.70%	—	61.70%	—
10/08/21	Underemployment Rate	—	—	8.80%	—
10/08/21	Wholesale Inventories MoM	1.20%	—	1.20%	—
10/08/21	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	0.80%	—	2.00%	—

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