October 5, 2023 Headlines

Long-end Treasury yields are drifting higher on relatively light volumes to start the day (and ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report). The sell-off has been severe over the last several months. Since May 3, 5-year and 10-year yields are up roughly 145 basis points (bps), with the 3-month yield up just 31 basis points. This has helped relieve some of the yield curve inversion, with the 3-month/10-year spread moving from -190 bps to -74 bps over that timeframe. On the data front, initial jobless claims came in slightly below expectations at 207,000 last week, essentially unchanged from the prior week. For tomorrow’s jobs report, nonfarm payrolls are expected to have added 170,000 jobs in September, and the headline unemployment rate is expected to have fallen 10 bps to 3.7%.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/5/2023Challenger Job Cuts YoY58.20%266.90%
10/5/2023Trade Balance-$59.8b-$58.3b-$65.0b-$64.7b
10/5/2023Initial Jobless Claims210k207k204k205k
10/5/2023Continuing Claims1671k1664k1670k1665k
10/6/2023Two-Month Payroll Net Revision
10/6/2023Change in Nonfarm Payrolls170k187k
10/6/2023Change in Private Payrolls155k179k
10/6/2023Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k16k
10/6/2023Unemployment Rate3.70%3.80%
10/6/2023Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%
10/6/2023Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.30%4.30%
10/6/2023Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.4
10/6/2023Labor Force Participation Rate62.80%62.80%
10/6/2023Underemployment Rate7.10%
10/6/2023Consumer Credit$11.700b$10.399b
10/10/2023NFIB Small Business Optimism91.3
10/10/2023Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%
10/10/2023Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.80%
10/10/2023NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations3.63%
10/11/2023MBA Mortgage Applications-6.00%
10/11/2023PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.70%
10/11/2023PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
10/11/2023PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.30%
10/11/2023PPI Final Demand YoY1.60%
10/11/2023PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.20%
10/11/2023PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY3.00%
10/11/2023FOMC Meeting Minutes
10/12/2023CPI MoM0.30%0.60%
10/12/2023CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.30%
10/12/2023CPI YoY3.60%3.70%
10/12/2023CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.10%4.30%
10/12/2023CPI Index NSA307.432307.026
10/12/2023CPI Core Index SA309.661
10/12/2023Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.50%
10/12/2023Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.30%
10/12/2023Initial Jobless Claims207k
10/12/2023Continuing Claims1664k
10/12/2023Monthly Budget Statement$89.3b


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