The curve is 1 to 2 basis points higher this morning following the release of jobs data that showed the unemployment rate falling to a 48-year low of 3.7%, which should keep the Fed on track for gradual rate hikes. The change in non-farm payrolls came in lower than expected at 134,000 versus the median forecast of 185,000. Some of the miss is probably attributable to the effects of Hurricane Florence as the number of employees reporting reduced hours due to weather was 6x the average for September. Average hourly earnings increased by 2.8% year over year, a 0.1% decline from the prior month.

Hafizan Hamzah
Director, Investment Management Group

 

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
10/01Markit US Manufacturing PMI55.655.655.6
10/01Construction Spending MoM0.40%0.10%0.10%
10/01ISM Manufacturing6059.861.3
10/01ISM Employment58.858.5
10/01ISM Prices Paid71.466.972.1
10/01ISM New Orders61.865.1
10/02Wards Total Vehicle Sales16.80m17.40m16.60m
10/03MBA Mortgage Applications0.00%2.90%
10/03ADP Employment Change184k230k163k
10/03Markit US Services PMI5353.552.9
10/03Markit US Composite PMI53.953.4
10/03ISM Non-Manufacturing Index5861.658.5
10/04Challenger Job Cuts YoY70.90%13.70%
10/04Initial Jobless Claims215k207k214k
10/04Continuing Claims1665k1650k1661k
10/04Bloomberg Consumer Comfort61.661.2
10/04Factory Orders2.10%2.30%-0.80%
10/04Factory Orders Ex Trans0.10%0.20%
10/04Durable Goods Orders4.50%4.40%4.50%
10/04Durables Ex Transportation0.00%0.10%
10/04Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air-0.90%-0.50%
10/04Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air-0.20%0.10%
10/05Trade Balance-$53.6b-$53.2b-$50.1b
10/05Change in Nonfarm Payrolls185k134k201k
10/05Two-Month Payroll Net Revision87k
10/05Change in Private Payrolls180k121k204k
10/05Change in Manufact. Payrolls15k18k-3k
10/05Unemployment Rate3.80%3.70%3.90%
10/05Underemployment Rate7.50%7.40%
10/05Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.30%0.40%
10/05Average Hourly Earnings YoY2.80%2.80%2.90%
10/05Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.534.534.5
10/05Labor Force Participation Rate62.70%62.70%62.70%
10/05Consumer Credit$15.000b$16.640b