Treasury prices are lower across the curve following the release of the September jobs report, with the 10-year note yield approaching 2.40% for the first time since early July. Most Asian equity markets posted modest gains overnight, but European markets and S&P 500 futures are slightly lower at the moment.
Nonfarm payrolls shed 33,000 jobs in September, the first negative print since September 2010. Market participants were expecting a noisy number due to the recent hurricanes, so there’s no negative reaction to the headline jobs number. However, there is a more positive reaction to the wage growth data and the household employment survey. Regarding the former, average hourly earnings rose 0.5% in September (0.3% expected), and the prior month’s rate was revised higher to 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, wages were up 2.9% (2.6% expected), which is the highest annual pace since June 2009. For the household survey, the headline unemployment rate fell 20 bps to 4.2%, the lowest since January 2001. The headline rate was pushed lower by a 906,000 increase in household employment, which outpaced a fairly significant increase in the official labor force (+575,000). As such, the labor participation rate bounced higher to a 3.5 year high of 63.1%.
The Labor Department noted that Hurricane Harvey and Irma had a notable impact on estimates of total nonfarm payrolls, but it also said there was “no discernible effect” on the household survey (different calculation methodologies). Hence, the immediate market reaction is more focused on the household survey data, which was very positive. The strong wage growth is also well received, but it’s worth noting that this data comes from the same establishment survey that produces nonfarm payrolls. In other words, was the wage data also impacted by the hurricanes?
Jason Haley
Managing Director, Investment Management Group
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised | |
| 10/6/2017 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | Sep | 80k | -33k | 156k | 169k |
| 10/6/2017 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | Sep | — | -38k | — | — |
| 10/6/2017 | Change in Private Payrolls | Sep | 75k | -40k | 165k | 164k |
| 10/6/2017 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | Sep | 10k | -1k | 36k | 41k |
| 10/6/2017 | Unemployment Rate | Sep | 4.40% | 4.20% | 4.40% | — |
| 10/6/2017 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | Sep | 0.30% | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 10/6/2017 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | Sep | 2.60% | 2.90% | 2.50% | 2.70% |
| 10/6/2017 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | Sep | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.4 | — |
| 10/6/2017 | Labor Force Participation Rate | Sep | 62.90% | 63.10% | 62.90% | — |
| 10/6/2017 | Underemployment Rate | Sep | — | 8.30% | 8.60% | — |
| 10/6/2017 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | Aug F | 1.00% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 10/6/2017 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | Aug | 0.00% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 10/6/2017 | Consumer Credit | Aug | $15.540b | — | $18.499b | — |
| 10/10/2017 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | Sep | 105 | — | 105.3 | — |
| 10/11/2017 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 6-Oct | — | — | -0.40% | — |
| 10/11/2017 | JOLTS Job Openings | Aug | — | — | 6170 | — |
| 10/11/2017 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | 20-Sep | — | — | — | — |
| 10/12/2017 | PPI Final Demand MoM | Sep | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 10/12/2017 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Sep | 0.20% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 10/12/2017 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | Sep | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 10/12/2017 | PPI Final Demand YoY | Sep | 2.60% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 10/12/2017 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Sep | 2.10% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 10/12/2017 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | Sep | — | — | 1.90% | — |
| 10/12/2017 | Initial Jobless Claims | 7-Oct | 252k | — | 260k | — |
| 10/12/2017 | Continuing Claims | 30-Sep | — | — | 1938k | — |
| 10/12/2017 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | 8-Oct | — | — | 49.9 | — |
| 10/12/2017 | Monthly Budget Statement | Sep | $0.0b | — | -$107.7b | — |
| 10/13/2017 | CPI MoM | Sep | 0.60% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 10/13/2017 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | Sep | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 10/13/2017 | CPI YoY | Sep | 2.30% | — | 1.90% | — |
| 10/13/2017 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | Sep | 1.80% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 10/13/2017 | CPI Core Index SA | Sep | 253.1 | — | 252.54 | — |
| 10/13/2017 | CPI Index NSA | Sep | 246.902 | — | 245.519 | — |
| 10/13/2017 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | Sep | — | — | 0.90% | 1.00% |
| 10/13/2017 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | Sep | 1.40% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 10/13/2017 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | Sep | — | — | 0.60% | 0.70% |
| 10/13/2017 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | Sep | 0.90% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 10/13/2017 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | Sep | 0.40% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 10/13/2017 | Retail Sales Control Group | Sep | 0.40% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 10/13/2017 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | Oct P | 95.3 | — | 95.1 | — |
| 10/13/2017 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | Oct P | — | — | 111.7 | — |
| 10/13/2017 | U. of Mich. Expectations | Oct P | — | — | 84.4 | — |
| 10/13/2017 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | Oct P | — | — | 2.70% | — |
| 10/13/2017 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | Oct P | — | — | 2.50% | — |
| 10/13/2017 | Business Inventories | Aug | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |