October 6, 2023 Headlines

Job growth surpassed expectations once again in September. Nonfarm payrolls added 336,000 jobs last month, nearly double what was expected, and the prior month was revised higher by 40,000 jobs. In the household survey, the headline unemployment rate held steady at 3.8%, with an 86,000 increase in household employment offset by a 90,000 increase in the official labor force. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% for a second consecutive month, slightly below expectations. On a year-over-year basis, wages rose 4.2% versus expectations of a 4.3% gain. The initial market reaction is a sharp sell-off in bonds. Treasury yields are up approximately 10 basis points in parallel fashion across the curve. Fed funds futures are still pricing a low probability of a November rate hike by the Fed, just 25% as it stands this morning. There is growing belief that the recent sell-off in bonds may dissuade the Fed from further action, but it’s still too early to call.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date	Event	Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
10/6/2023	Two-Month Payroll Net Revision	—	119k	—	—
10/6/2023	Change in Nonfarm Payrolls	170k	336k	187k	227k
10/6/2023	Change in Private Payrolls	160k	263k	179k	177k
10/6/2023	Change in Manufact. Payrolls	5k	17k	16k	11k
10/6/2023	Unemployment Rate	3.70%	3.80%	3.80%	—
10/6/2023	Average Hourly Earnings MoM	0.30%	0.20%	0.20%	—
10/6/2023	Average Hourly Earnings YoY	4.30%	4.20%	4.30%	—
10/6/2023	Average Weekly Hours All Employees	34.4	34.4	34.4	—
10/6/2023	Labor Force Participation Rate	62.80%	62.80%	62.80%	—
10/6/2023	Underemployment Rate	—	7.00%	7.10%	—
10/6/2023	Consumer Credit	$11.700b	—	$10.399b	—
10/10/2023	NFIB Small Business Optimism	—	—	91.3	—
10/10/2023	Wholesale Inventories MoM	—	—	-0.10%	—
10/10/2023	Wholesale Trade Sales MoM	—	—	0.80%	—
10/10/2023	NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations	—	—	3.63%	—
10/11/2023	MBA Mortgage Applications	—	—	-6.00%	—
10/11/2023	PPI Final Demand MoM	0.30%	—	0.70%	—
10/11/2023	PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.20%	—	0.20%	—
10/11/2023	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM	0.20%	—	0.30%	—
10/11/2023	PPI Final Demand YoY	—	—	1.60%	—
10/11/2023	PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	2.30%	—	2.20%	—
10/11/2023	PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY	—	—	3.00%	—
10/11/2023	FOMC Meeting Minutes	—	—	—	—
10/12/2023	CPI MoM	0.30%	—	0.60%	—
10/12/2023	CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM	0.30%	—	0.30%	—
10/12/2023	CPI YoY	3.60%	—	3.70%	—
10/12/2023	CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY	4.10%	—	4.30%	—
10/12/2023	CPI Index NSA	307.432	—	307.026	—
10/12/2023	CPI Core Index SA	—	—	309.661	—
10/12/2023	Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY	—	—	0.50%	—
10/12/2023	Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY	—	—	0.30%	—
10/12/2023	Initial Jobless Claims	215k	—	207k	—
10/12/2023	Continuing Claims	—	—	1664k	—
10/12/2023	Monthly Budget Statement	—	—	$89.3b	—
10/13/2023	Import Price Index MoM	0.60%	—	0.50%	—
10/13/2023	Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM	—	—	0.00%	—
10/13/2023	Import Price Index YoY	—	—	-3.00%	—
10/13/2023	Export Price Index MoM	0.50%	—	1.30%	—
10/13/2023	Export Price Index YoY	—	—	-5.50%	—
10/13/2023	U. of Mich. Sentiment	67.5	—	68.1	—
10/13/2023	U. of Mich. Current Conditions	—	—	71.4	—
10/13/2023	U. of Mich. Expectations	—	—	66	—
10/13/2023	U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation	—	—	3.20%	—
10/13/2023	U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation	—	—	2.80%	—

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