October 6, 2023 Headlines

Job growth surpassed expectations once again in September. Nonfarm payrolls added 336,000 jobs last month, nearly double what was expected, and the prior month was revised higher by 40,000 jobs. In the household survey, the headline unemployment rate held steady at 3.8%, with an 86,000 increase in household employment offset by a 90,000 increase in the official labor force. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% for a second consecutive month, slightly below expectations. On a year-over-year basis, wages rose 4.2% versus expectations of a 4.3% gain. The initial market reaction is a sharp sell-off in bonds. Treasury yields are up approximately 10 basis points in parallel fashion across the curve. Fed funds futures are still pricing a low probability of a November rate hike by the Fed, just 25% as it stands this morning. There is growing belief that the recent sell-off in bonds may dissuade the Fed from further action, but it’s still too early to call.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

10/6/2023Two-Month Payroll Net Revision119k
10/6/2023Change in Nonfarm Payrolls170k336k187k227k
10/6/2023Change in Private Payrolls160k263k179k177k
10/6/2023Change in Manufact. Payrolls5k17k16k11k
10/6/2023Unemployment Rate3.70%3.80%3.80%
10/6/2023Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%0.20%
10/6/2023Average Hourly Earnings YoY4.30%4.20%4.30%
10/6/2023Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.434.434.4
10/6/2023Labor Force Participation Rate62.80%62.80%62.80%
10/6/2023Underemployment Rate7.00%7.10%
10/6/2023Consumer Credit$11.700b$10.399b
10/10/2023NFIB Small Business Optimism91.3
10/10/2023Wholesale Inventories MoM-0.10%
10/10/2023Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.80%
10/10/2023NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations3.63%
10/11/2023MBA Mortgage Applications-6.00%
10/11/2023PPI Final Demand MoM0.30%0.70%
10/11/2023PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.20%
10/11/2023PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.30%
10/11/2023PPI Final Demand YoY1.60%
10/11/2023PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.20%
10/11/2023PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY3.00%
10/11/2023FOMC Meeting Minutes
10/12/2023CPI MoM0.30%0.60%
10/12/2023CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.30%0.30%
10/12/2023CPI YoY3.60%3.70%
10/12/2023CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.10%4.30%
10/12/2023CPI Index NSA307.432307.026
10/12/2023CPI Core Index SA309.661
10/12/2023Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY0.50%
10/12/2023Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY0.30%
10/12/2023Initial Jobless Claims215k207k
10/12/2023Continuing Claims1664k
10/12/2023Monthly Budget Statement$89.3b
10/13/2023Import Price Index MoM0.60%0.50%
10/13/2023Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.00%
10/13/2023Import Price Index YoY-3.00%
10/13/2023Export Price Index MoM0.50%1.30%
10/13/2023Export Price Index YoY-5.50%
10/13/2023U. of Mich. Sentiment67.568.1
10/13/2023U. of Mich. Current Conditions71.4
10/13/2023U. of Mich. Expectations66
10/13/2023U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation3.20%
10/13/2023U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.80%


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