Following a relatively quiet overnight session, Treasury prices are unchanged to slightly higher across the curve. The market seems to have found support levels after yields rose to four-month highs yesterday afternoon. Yesterday’s release of the September 16 FOMC minutes revealed some of the internal debate surrounding the shift to outcome-based forward guidance. The following excerpt is capturing the most attention: “Participants generally noted that outcome-based forward guidance for the federal funds rate of this type was not an unconditional commitment to a particular path.” In other words, committee members do want to maintain some flexibility with regard to future rate policy with regard to what criteria would have to proceed a rate hike (full employment and inflation above 2% for “some time”). Initial jobless claims came in above expectations at 840,000 last week, but on a positive note, continuing claims continue to fall on both a seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted basis.
Chief Investment Officer
|10/5/20||Markit US Services PMI||54.6||54.6||54.6||—|
|10/5/20||Markit US Composite PMI||—||54.3||54.4||—|
|10/5/20||ISM Services Index||56.2||57.8||56.9||—|
|10/6/20||JOLTS Job Openings||6500||6493||6618||6697|
|10/7/20||MBA Mortgage Applications||—||4.60%||-4.80%||—|
|10/7/20||FOMC Meeting Minutes||—||—||—||—|
|10/8/20||Initial Jobless Claims||820k||840k||837k||849k|
|10/8/20||Bloomberg Consumer Comfort||—||—||49.3||—|
|10/9/20||Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey|
|10/9/20||Wholesale Inventories MoM||0.50%||—||0.50%||—|
|10/9/20||Wholesale Trade Sales MoM||—||—||4.60%||—|
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