October 8, 2020 Headlines

Following a relatively quiet overnight session, Treasury prices are unchanged to slightly higher across the curve. The market seems to have found support levels after yields rose to four-month highs yesterday afternoon. Yesterday’s release of the September 16 FOMC minutes revealed some of the internal debate surrounding the shift to outcome-based forward guidance. The following excerpt is capturing the most attention: “Participants generally noted that outcome-based forward guidance for the federal funds rate of this type was not an unconditional commitment to a particular path.” In other words, committee members do want to maintain some flexibility with regard to future rate policy with regard to what criteria would have to proceed a rate hike (full employment and inflation above 2% for “some time”). Initial jobless claims came in above expectations at 840,000 last week, but on a positive note, continuing claims continue to fall on both a seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted basis.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

Date Event Survey Actual Prior Revised
10/5/20 Markit US Services PMI 54.6 54.6 54.6
10/5/20 Markit US Composite PMI 54.3 54.4
10/5/20 ISM Services Index 56.2 57.8 56.9
10/6/20 Trade Balance -$66.2b -$67.1b -$63.6b -$63.4b
10/6/20 JOLTS Job Openings 6500 6493 6618 6697
10/7/20 MBA Mortgage Applications 4.60% -4.80%
10/7/20 FOMC Meeting Minutes
10/7/20 Consumer Credit $14.000b -$7.220b $12.250b $14.674b
10/8/20 Initial Jobless Claims 820k 840k 837k 849k
10/8/20 Continuing Claims 11400k 10976k 11767k 11979k
10/8/20 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 49.3
10/9/20 Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/9/20 Wholesale Inventories MoM 0.50% 0.50%
10/9/20 Wholesale Trade Sales MoM 4.60%


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