October 8, 2020 Headlines

Following a relatively quiet overnight session, Treasury prices are unchanged to slightly higher across the curve. The market seems to have found support levels after yields rose to four-month highs yesterday afternoon. Yesterday’s release of the September 16 FOMC minutes revealed some of the internal debate surrounding the shift to outcome-based forward guidance. The following excerpt is capturing the most attention: “Participants generally noted that outcome-based forward guidance for the federal funds rate of this type was not an unconditional commitment to a particular path.” In other words, committee members do want to maintain some flexibility with regard to future rate policy with regard to what criteria would have to proceed a rate hike (full employment and inflation above 2% for “some time”). Initial jobless claims came in above expectations at 840,000 last week, but on a positive note, continuing claims continue to fall on both a seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted basis.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
10/5/20Markit US Services PMI54.654.654.6
10/5/20Markit US Composite PMI54.354.4
10/5/20ISM Services Index56.257.856.9
10/6/20Trade Balance-$66.2b-$67.1b-$63.6b-$63.4b
10/6/20JOLTS Job Openings6500649366186697
10/7/20MBA Mortgage Applications4.60%-4.80%
10/7/20FOMC Meeting Minutes
10/7/20Consumer Credit$14.000b-$7.220b$12.250b$14.674b
10/8/20Initial Jobless Claims820k840k837k849k
10/8/20Continuing Claims11400k10976k11767k11979k
10/8/20Bloomberg Consumer Comfort49.3
10/9/20Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/9/20Wholesale Inventories MoM0.50%0.50%
10/9/20Wholesale Trade Sales MoM4.60%

 

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