Following a relatively quiet overnight session, Treasury prices are unchanged to slightly higher across the curve. The market seems to have found support levels after yields rose to four-month highs yesterday afternoon. Yesterday’s release of the September 16 FOMC minutes revealed some of the internal debate surrounding the shift to outcome-based forward guidance. The following excerpt is capturing the most attention: “Participants generally noted that outcome-based forward guidance for the federal funds rate of this type was not an unconditional commitment to a particular path.” In other words, committee members do want to maintain some flexibility with regard to future rate policy with regard to what criteria would have to proceed a rate hike (full employment and inflation above 2% for “some time”). Initial jobless claims came in above expectations at 840,000 last week, but on a positive note, continuing claims continue to fall on both a seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted basis.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
10/5/20 | Markit US Services PMI | 54.6 | 54.6 | 54.6 | — |
10/5/20 | Markit US Composite PMI | — | 54.3 | 54.4 | — |
10/5/20 | ISM Services Index | 56.2 | 57.8 | 56.9 | — |
10/6/20 | Trade Balance | -$66.2b | -$67.1b | -$63.6b | -$63.4b |
10/6/20 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6500 | 6493 | 6618 | 6697 |
10/7/20 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | 4.60% | -4.80% | — |
10/7/20 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
10/7/20 | Consumer Credit | $14.000b | -$7.220b | $12.250b | $14.674b |
10/8/20 | Initial Jobless Claims | 820k | 840k | 837k | 849k |
10/8/20 | Continuing Claims | 11400k | 10976k | 11767k | 11979k |
10/8/20 | Bloomberg Consumer Comfort | — | — | 49.3 | — |
10/9/20 | Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey | ||||
10/9/20 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | — |
10/9/20 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | 4.60% | — |
Subscribe Today!
Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.