October 9, 2019 Headlines

US China trade talks have moved back into the headlines with high level talks scheduled to resume in Washington on Thursday. While a broad trade deal is unlikely, Chinese officials have signaled that Beijing is willing to increase agricultural purchases if no more tariffs are imposed. This includes two rounds of tariffs that are set to go into effect later this year. At this point, a broad agreement seems unlikely, but a partial trade deal would begin to limit the damage. Hidden behind the trade war, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell indicated the central bank will resume purchases of US Treasury bills to increase the supply of reserves in the market. The Chairman stressed that the program should not be confused with large-scale asset purchase (Quantitative Easing) and meant to keep money markets functioning smoothly.

Chris Eckhoff
Associate, Investment Management Group

10/7/2019Consumer Credit$15.000b$17.901b$23.294b$23.046b
10/8/2019NFIB Small Business Optimism102101.8103.1
10/8/2019PPI Final Demand MoM0.10%-0.30%0.10%
10/8/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%-0.30%0.30%
10/8/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.20%0.00%0.40%
10/8/2019PPI Final Demand YoY1.80%1.40%1.80%
10/8/2019PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.30%2.00%2.30%
10/8/2019PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY1.70%1.90%
10/9/2019MBA Mortgage Applications5.20%8.10%
10/9/2019JOLTS Job Openings72507217
10/9/2019Wholesale Inventories MoM0.40%0.40%
10/9/2019Wholesale Trade Sales MoM0.30%
10/9/2019FOMC Meeting Minutes
10/9/2019-10/11/2019Monthly Budget Statement$93.0b$119.1b
10/10/2019CPI MoM0.10%0.10%
10/10/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.20%0.30%
10/10/2019CPI YoY1.80%1.70%
10/10/2019CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY2.40%2.40%
10/10/2019CPI Core Index SA264.742264.245
10/10/2019CPI Index NSA256.938256.558
10/10/2019Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY1.20%1.10%
10/10/2019Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY1.50%1.40%
10/10/2019Initial Jobless Claims220k219k
10/10/2019Continuing Claims1651k1651k
10/10/2019Bloomberg Consumer Comfort62
10/11/2019Import Price Index MoM0.00%-0.50%
10/11/2019Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM-0.10%0.00%
10/11/2019Import Price Index YoY-2.10%-2.00%
10/11/2019Export Price Index MoM-0.10%-0.60%
10/11/2019Export Price Index YoY-1.40%
10/11/2019Bloomberg Oct. United States Economic Survey
10/11/2019U. of Mich. Sentiment9293.2
10/11/2019U. of Mich. Current Conditions109108.5
10/11/2019U. of Mich. Expectations82.583.4
10/11/2019U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation2.80%
10/11/2019U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation2.40%








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