Published in: CUNA Councils

With many credit unions currently finalizing their strategic plans and budgets for 2020, there are several key economic factors that are important to take into consideration. This article includes key takeaways from the recent economic update presented by Jason Haley, managing director of ALM First’s Investment Management Group, during ALM First’s Financial Forum, which was held September 23-25 in San Antonio, Texas.  

Key Factor 1: Trade  

After an extremely volatile August driven by trade concerns, markets remain most sensitive to U.S./China trade tensions. Even if a comprehensive trade deal is reached in the near-term, will it be too late for the global economy to avoid recession? That is a key question as we evaluate current economic themes.

The current expansion is now the longest in modern history with a strong labor market, higher wage growth and Core CPI at a current cycle high. However, trade tensions continue to present great uncertainty for the global economy. Late-cycle symptoms have also emerged recently with downward revisions to estimates of economic growth, corporate profits, and employment growth.

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