Beyond the Headlines

September 24, 2021 Headlines

Markets continue to juggle near-term worries related to Evergrande and the Fed’s hawkish surprise on Wednesday. Regarding the former, bond holders reportedly did not receive scheduled interest payments yesterday, starting the clock on the 30-day grace period before...

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September 23, 2021 Headlines

The curve is higher and steeper this morning with the belly and long-end up 5 to 6 bps while equity futures are up (Dow +0.75% and S&P +0.62%). The risk-on move is being driven by yesterday’s Fed meeting in which the central bank left open the possibility of...

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September 22, 2021 Headlines

All eyes are on the Fed today in global financial markets. A modest risk-on tone overnight has equity futures modestly higher ahead of the open, and Treasuries are little changed. There are two areas of focus for today’s Fed meeting. First, what will the committee...

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September 21, 2021 Headlines

Risk markets rebounded overnight from yesterday’s sharp sell-off. S&P 500 futures are up 0.70% an hour before the open, and Treasury yields are modestly higher and steeper. Evergrande reportedly missed interest payments due yesterday to at least two of its largest...

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September 20, 2021 Headlines

A potential default this week by Chinese real estate giant Evergrande and worries of secondary contagion from the default has investors uneasy to start the week. Today’s global risk-off trade has U.S. equity index futures down 1.5%-2% and the Treasury curve 5 basis...

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September 17, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries fluctuated in a relatively tight range overnight on conflicting headlines out of Europe and China. Yields are unchanged to slightly lower this morning, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.20%. An ECB official said that Eurozone inflation is likely to be...

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September 16, 2021 Headlines

The curve is higher and steeper this morning following the release of initial jobless claims and retail sales. Initial jobless claims increased last week to 332,000 from 312,000. The median forecast had called for an increase to 322,000. Most of the rise in...

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September 15, 2021 Headlines

It was a relatively quiet overnight session as attention shifts from yesterday’s CPI report to next week’s FOMC meeting. Long-end yields are 1-3 basis points lower following softer economic data out of China, and S&P 500 futures are little changed an hour before...

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September 14, 2021 Headlines

Inflation accelerated at a slower than expected pace in August according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI rose 0.1% m/m, the lowest monthly growth rate since February and down from 0.3% the prior month. On a year-over-year...

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September 13, 2021 Headlines

Long-end yields are lower to start the week despite gains in equities as market participants prepare for tomorrow's CPI report. The overnight trading session was relatively quiet, and besides tomorrow’s CPI report for August, the preliminary University of Michigan...

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September 10, 2021 Headlines

Global risk markets are responding positively to reports of a 90-minute phone call initiated by President Biden with China’s Xi Jinping. There were no official announcements following the first call between the two leaders since February, but the call is fueling some...

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September 9, 2021 Headlines

Continued concerns related to the global economic outlook weighed on risk assets overnight. Treasuries moved back to unchanged on the day following the ECB’s decision to reduce bond purchases in Q4, but long-end yields are beginning to grind lower again. The European...

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September 8, 2021 Headlines

Buyers emerged overnight in Treasuries following yesterday’s supply-driven sell-off, and equity futures are slightly lower amid a modest risk-off tone. Axios is reporting that Senator Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) has warned the White House that he is open to supporting only...

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September 7, 2021 Headlines

New supply expected this week from the U.S. and Europe (government and corporate debt) is pushing bond yields 1-5 basis points higher across the curve this morning, but U.S. equity index futures are little changed ahead of the open. Enhanced federal unemployment...

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September 3, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher and steeper following a big miss in the August payrolls report, but markets are expected to be less liquid today ahead of the long holiday weekend. Nonfarm payrolls added 235,000 jobs in August, well below the 733,000 expected job gains and...

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September 2, 2021 Headlines

It’s relatively quiet in U.S. markets this morning ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report and the long holiday weekend. Treasury yields are unchanged to slightly lower across the curve, and equity index futures are up 20-30 basis points. Ford Motor announced that it will be...

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September 1, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields were higher overnight despite weaker economic data out of China (again), but a downside miss in the ADP employment report has yields now lower on the day across the curve. U.S. equity futures are up 25-35 bps ahead of the open. The ADP employment...

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August 31, 2021 Headlines

Treasuries fluctuated between positive and negative territory overnight on mixed economic data oversees. Yields are slightly lower on the long-end this morning, and U.S. equity futures have given back early gains after a ECB Governing Council member Robert Holzmann...

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August 30, 2021 Headlines

U.S. markets are little changed to start the week as participants continue to digest Friday’s Powell speech as well as the human and economic impacts of the tragic hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast. The Fed chair’s Jackson Hole speech certainly wasn’t perceived to be...

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August 27, 2021 Headlines

Treasury yields are 1 to 2 bps lower this morning ahead of Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The pace of personal spending slowed in July as purchases of goods and services rose by 0.3% compared to a revised 1.1% in the prior month. PCE, which is the Fed’s...

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