Beyond the Headlines
Treasury yields are higher this morning on more weak PMI data out of Europe, including another disappointing manufacturing reading for Germany. A better-than-expected U.S. retail sales report is helping offset the risk-off move somewhat, at least in equity markets....read more
Morning activity is very similar to yesterday, with a slightly better tone in risk markets contributing to modest gains in global equities and higher Treasury yields. Chinese economic data released overnight was better than expected, which is the primary catalyst for...read more
An improved tone in global risk markets is pushing Treasury yields slightly higher this morning. Most major equity indices are higher on the day, albeit modestly, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 0.35%. There weren’t really any major headlines overnight, but a...read more
Treasuries and U.S. equity futures are little changed to start the week following a quiet news cycle over the weekend. Recent articles suggest a U.S./China trade deal is imminent, with an announcement potentially as early as this week. According to Reuters, the U.S....read more
Treasury prices are lower this morning following a risk on trade catalyzed by news that China saw better than expected growth in lending. As a result, the curve is 5 to 6 bps higher, with the 10-year sitting at 2.55% currently. S&P futures are up 0.64% while Dow...read more
US Treasury yields bear-flattened during the overnight session in response to headlines concerning Brexit and the US/China trade deal. Yields moved 1bps higher and traded in a tight range after the UK/EU agreed to a six-month Brexit extension which is already being...read more
Treasury prices are moving higher and the dollar is strengthening following the ECB meeting this morning. ECB President Mario Draghi was once again bearish in his outlook for the Eurozone economy, noting downside risks from Brexit and the impact of trade protectionism...read more
Treasury prices are grinding higher (and curve flatter), and equity futures are pointing to a slightly lower open for U.S. stocks. There weren’t any major headlines overnight, although a trade skirmish between the U.S. and Europe is garnering some focus this morning....read more
Treasuries are little changed following the release of the March jobs report, and S&P 500 futures are currently up 28 bps. Nonfarm payrolls added 196,000 jobs in March, nearly 20,000 more than expected and up from the dismal 33,000 figure in February (revised...read more
US equities paused overnight after the recent rally as market participants look for more details regarding US-China trade negotiations. President Trump is expected to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu in what is being rumored as the final stages of negotiation. The...read more
A better tone in risk markets overnight has pushed Treasury prices lower and the curve steeper. All major equity indices (domestic and overseas) are in the green today, with S&P 500 futures currently up 0.58%. The catalysts for today’s risk-on move include 1)...read more
Treasury prices are higher this morning with buyers emerging following yesterday’s big sell off. There were no major macro headlines overnight, and U.S. equities appear poised to take a breather following yesterday’s 1.2% rally (S&P 500 futures unchanged). The Fed...read more
A strong PMI release out of China sparked a risk on move overnight sending Treasury prices lower and equity markets higher. The manufacturing data from the world’s second largest economy helped to assuage fears that the global economy is slowing. In the US, retail...read more
Chinese stocks soared overnight with the Shanghai Composite up 3.2% on positive reports that trade negotiators have been working line-by-line through an agreement that could potentially be put in front of both leaders. In the US, the gains have been more muted with...read more
The week-long rally in Treasuries has halted this morning, with yields modestly higher across the curve. However, yields in the 2-year to 10-year part of the curve are down approximately 25 bps since March 19. There weren’t any major macro headlines overnight,...read more
U.S. Treasury prices are higher this morning following renewed concerns over a pessimistic global outlook and dovish comments from Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank (ECB) President. In China, February’s industrial profits dropped -14% compared to -1.9% in...read more
U.S. Treasuries retreated from yesterday’s gains with the yield curve bear flattening as risk assets recovered. The sell-off was initially sparked by comments from Eric Rosengren, the Boston Federal Reserve President, that the Fed should consider raising the...read more
After the sharp decline in risk assets on Friday, overnight moves in European and US equities were tame with S&P 500 futures set to open -.13%. In rates, the US Treasury curve bear-steepened after positive economic data out of Europe which pushed the...read more
Treasuries extended their rally into the overnight session and opened this morning around a basis point lower, with the 10-year hitting its lowest level since January 8th, 2018. In its meeting yesterday, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to leave the...read more
All eyes are focused on the FOMC decision this afternoon as US Treasury yields are trading slightly lower this morning and equities unchanged on low volumes. Currently, the decision is not in doubt as market participants expect the rate will be unaltered. After the...read more
Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.
“ALM First” is a brand name for a financial services business conducted by ALM First Group, LLC (“ALM First”) through its wholly owned subsidiaries: ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC (“ALM First Financial Advisors”); ALM First Advisors, LLC (“ALM First Advisors”); and ALM First Analytics, LLC (“ALM First Analytics”). Investment advisory services are offered through ALM First Financial Advisors, an SEC registered investment adviser. Balance sheet advisory services are offered through ALM First Advisors. Financial reporting services, loan introduction services, and other special project services are offered through ALM First Analytics. Neither ALM First nor any of its subsidiaries provide legal, tax, or accounting advice.
INVESTMENT PRODUCTS ARE: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, ALM FIRST OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES • SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED.