Beyond the Headlines

June 30, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields fell after spending data came in lower than expected with the front-end and belly 9 to 10 bps lower. Personal spending data showed a 0.2% increase in May, half of the median forecast, and April’s number was revised lower to 0.6% from 0.9%. The decline...

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June 29, 2022 Headlines

First quarter GDP was revised lower to -1.6% from -1.5%. The Bloomberg median forecast called Q1 GDP to remain unchanged at -1.5%. Personal consumption was cut to 1.8% from 3.1%, which would be the lowest level in seven quarters. Spending on goods was revised down to...

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June 28, 2022 Headlines

The Treasury curve is higher and steeper this morning, with the 2-year up 2 bps and the 10-year up 4 bps. News out of China that the country had eased its Covid protocols sent stocks higher. China announced that it would reduce the time spent in quarantine for...

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June 27, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are 4 to 6 bps higher to start the day with the 10-year hovering around 3.19%. Durable goods orders came in higher than expected in May, +0.7% m/m vs +0.1% projected. May’s increase was broad based with orders for metals, machinery, communications...

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June 24, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are modestly higher in a relatively quiet start to the day as it feels like markets taking a breather today, for now at least. James Bullard (St Louis Fed) and Mary Daly (SF Fed) are both speaking today, and the final version of the June University of...

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June 23, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are another 7-10 basis points lower on the front-end of the curve, with the 2-year yield back below 3% after hitting an end-of-day peak of 3.43% on June 14. Weaker than expected PMI data from Europe further fueled the recent narrative of global...

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June 22, 2022 Headlines

An overnight risk-off trade has global equities and oil prices lower, fueling a rally in the bond market that has Treasury yield 9-12 basis points lower across the curve. There doesn’t appear to be anything specific driving today’s rally other the same general...

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June 21, 2022 Headlines

A better tone in risk markets overnight has long-end Treasury yields higher on the day and the curve steeper. U.S. equity futures are up approximately 1.5% a little less than an hour before the open, hoping to recoup some of the 12% decline in the S&P 500 over the...

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June 17, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are 2-3 bps higher this morning with the 10-year sitting at 3.21%. Equity futures are in the green this morning, the S&P +0.179% and Dow +0.067%. Mortgage rates continue to rise, and Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) showed...

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June 16, 2022 Headlines

The Treasury curve bear flattened overnight in a fade to yesterday’s oversized post-FOMC rally and a surprise 50 bps rate hike by the Swiss central bank. Equities are poised to give back all of yesterday’s gains (and more) with S&P 500 futures down 1.9% (8:22am...

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June 15, 2022 Headlines

Treasuries rallied overnight with better buying in Asian markets and some profit taking from short sellers ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC meeting. Front-end yields are 9-12 basis points lower this morning, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.9% (8:56am ET). May retail...

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June 14, 2022 Headlines

A modest correction emerged overnight in Treasuries, pushing front-end yields 7-8 basis points lower this morning. Normally, an 8 bps rally in the 2-year yield wouldn’t be considered “modest”, but when yields soar 54 bps in two days, the biggest two-day sell-off since...

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June 13, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are sharply higher this morning with yields up roughly 10 bps across the curve. The 10-year is sitting at 3.27%, its highest level since 2011, and the 2-year is at its highest level since 2007. The market is now pricing in 175 bps of rate hikes from...

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June 10, 2022 Headlines

Short and intermediate Treasury yields are fresh highs for the current cycle after the May CPI report came in above expectations for both headline and core inflation. The only term Treasury security without a 3% handle at the moment is the 2-year note at 2.9% (up 9...

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June 9, 2022 Headlines

A hawkish tone in the bond market this morning has the 2-year Treasury yield at a fresh cycle high of 2.82%. As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) laid the groundwork for its first rate hike (25 bps) next month, and it also hinted at a higher likelihood for...

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June 8, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are drifting 1-3 basis points higher across the curve ahead of today’s 10-year auction and tomorrow’s ECB meeting, and U.S. equity futures are modestly lower ahead of the open. Higher interest rates have had a positive impact on defined benefit...

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June 7, 2022 Headlines

Buyers emerged overnight in Treasuries with yields back near the 2022 highs following yesterday’s sell off. Most major global equity indices are in the red today, and S&P 500 futures are down 0.9% currently (8:50am ET). Yesterday’s sell-off in bonds was somewhat...

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June 6, 2022 Headlines

Treasury yields are drifting higher this morning amid an improved risk tone in global markets. S&P 500 futures are up more than 1% ahead of the open. There are no economic releases today, and investors are looking ahead to Thursday’s ECB meeting and Friday’s CPI...

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June 3, 2022 Headlines

Today’s job report came in better than expected with employers adding 390,000 jobs in May. The median forecast called for an increase of 318,000. The news pushed the Treasury curve higher and steeper, with front-end yields up 5-6 bps and long-end yields up 7-8 bps....

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June 2, 2022 Headlines

Front-end yields are 1 to 2 bps higher this morning. Initial jobless claims came in slightly lower than expected at 200k vs a median forecast of 210k. Continuing claims also came in lower than the forecast at 1.309mm actual vs 1.340mm expected. Both readings were...

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