Beyond the Headlines

The bond market continues to reprice following Friday’s big payrolls surprise. Treasury yields are 13 basis points higher to start the day for 2-year to 5-year maturities and cumulatively up 32 basis points since Thursday’s close. Markets have been fighting Fed...

A much stronger than expected January jobs report is fueling an overdue sell-off in the bond market this morning. Nonfarm payrolls added a whopping 517,000 jobs last month, 329,000 more than expected, and the previous month was revised higher by 37,000 jobs. From the...

The post-FOMC rally in bonds and stocks continues this morning, with Treasury yields down 4-7 basis points and S&P 500 futures up 70 bps. Following yesterday’s meeting, the FOMC announced a 25 basis point rate hike, as expected, and the official statement said...

Yesterday’s rally in Treasures has carried forward to this morning’s trading session, with yields 2-5 basis points lower amid light, pre-FOMC volumes. In Europe, core CPI for the Eurozone, as a whole, was hotter than expected at 5.2% y/y in January, raising the...

A tamer than expected report on wage inflation is sparking a bid for Treasuries this morning, sending yields front-end yields 4-6 basis points lower. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose 1% in the fourth quarter, slightly below the 1.1% expected growth rate and down...

Treasuries are following European bond yields higher this morning following an upside surprise for Spain’s inflation rate, which rose to 5.8% y/y from 5.5% the prior month (4.8% expected). While seemingly insignificant in isolation, Spain’s inflation surprise...

The PCE inflation report for December was in line with expectations and continued the recent trend of cooling price growth from last year’s peak. Core PCE rose 0.3% m/m, and the year-over-metric slowed to 4.4%, down 30 basis points from the prior month. Personal...

Treasury yields moved higher overnight on relatively light trading volumes and remain softer following the release of this morning’s economic data. Initial jobless claims surprised to the downside once again last week, coming in at 186,000 versus 205,000 expected, and...

Yields are slightly lower this morning as weaker corporate earnings sparked a flight to quality trade. The curve is 1 to 2 bps lower this morning while S&P Futures are down 0.92% ahead of the open. The market is also grappling with concerns over a possible...

Treasuries are little changed to start the day following a relatively quiet overnight session. U.S. equities are poised to give back some of the recent rally, with S&P 500 futures down 50 basis points as the market prepares for more big earnings announcements....

Hawkish comments from multiple ECB leaders fueled a modest sell-off in Treasuries amid light trading overnight. Fed watcher Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal wrote an article yesterday suggesting that Fed officials are likely to slow the pace of rate hikes to...

Treasury yields are continuing the climb started yesterday with the curve 5 to 6 bps higher this morning. Hawkish comments from Fed officials have been the catalyst for the move. Fed Vice Chair Brainard noted that “inflation remains high, and policy will to be...

Yesterday’s strong rally in Treasuries continued into the overnight session but halted following hawkish comments by European Central Bank leaders. Yields are 2-3 basis points higher across the curve, a modest retracement of yesterday’s action that saw yields fall...

The Bank of Japan’s surprise decision to maintain its yield curve control program has spark a rally in global government bonds. Treasury yields are 6-9 basis points lower across the curve to start the day. On the fiscal front, Republicans and Democrats continue to...

Long-end Treasury yields are 3-5 basis points higher to start the week as investors await the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision regarding its yield curve control (YCC) policy. The BOJ surprised markets in December by increasing its yield cap on 10-year government bonds,...

Treasury yields are 2-3 bps higher this morning and US equity futures are in the red following the release of US bank earnings. Yesterday’s CPI release gave investors hope of a tamer path for rate hikes but earnings numbers from JP Morgan, Bank of America, and the...

December CPI came in at -0.11% MoM, as expected, showing signs of slowdown in inflation. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose by 0.3% MoM and on a YoY basis was up 5.7%. These tamer readings should give the Fed the ability to slow the pace of hikes....

Treasury yields are lower and the curve flatter to start the day in sympathy with an overnight rally in U.K./European bonds. The 10-year yield is down 5 basis points so far to 3.57%, while the 2-year yield is essentially unchanged at 4.24%. Markets now await...

Rates are up and equity futures are in the red this morning.  Treasury yields are 5 to 6 bps higher across the curve while S&P 500 and Dow futures are down roughly 0.43%. Hawkish Fed speak is the catalyst for this morning’s move. San Francisco Fed President Mary...

We start the week with only a very modest retracement of Friday’s seemingly over-done rally in Treasuries. Friday’s rally was induced by the cooler-than-expected wage growth figure for December, even though the overall report still conveyed a very tight labor market....