Beyond the Headlines

December 4, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are 3-8 bps higher as bonds take a breather following a historic month for performance. The ICE BofA U.S. Broad Market Index (investment grade fixed income) generated a 4.39% total return in November, the highest since May 1985. Market repricing for a...

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December 1, 2023 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed to start the day ahead of two separate appearances from Fed Chair Powell today. Yields moved higher overnight on better manufacturing PMI data from the Eurozone and the U.K. but reversed course on a continued decline in input costs...

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November 30, 2023 Headlines

A report that the European Central Bank (ECB) will be discussing quantitative tightening at its December meeting sparked a bear steepening of the Treasury curve overnight. While the news pressured long-end prices, the front-end of the curve was supported by softer CPI...

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November 29, 2023 Headlines

Heightened speculation of peak policy rates from the Fed and other major central banks has fueled a 2-day rally in Treasuries that has front-end and intermediate yields down 18-22 basis points since Monday’s close. The most recent version of the ‘Fed pivot’ trade was...

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November 28, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are little changed across the curve in a very quiet start to the trading day. Speaking of the yield curve, the 2-year/10-year spread has flattened 32 basis points in November after ending last month at the least inverted level (-0.16%) since July 2022....

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November 27, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are little changed as market participants ease back into action following last week’s holiday. This week’s economic calendar is headlined by the November PCE report on Thursday, and the second estimate of Q3 GDP will be released on Wednesday. Later...

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November 24, 2023 Headlines

U.S. Treasuries are bear steepening in sympathy with declines in European bonds on Thursday, following the Thanksgiving holiday. The moves come on the heels of Germany suspending a constitutional limit on net new borrowing for the fourth consecutive year, likely...

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November 22, 2023 Headlines

Equity futures are rallying in early trading and the front-end of the yield curve repricing slightly higher after unemployment claims came in lower than consensus. Initial jobless claims dropped to 209,000 despite calls for 227,000, and continuing claims fell for the...

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November 21, 2023 Headlines

Yields are 1 to 2 bps lower this morning and equity futures are in the red with both the S&P and Dow down 0.11%. Existing home sales data is slated to come out later this morning. The consensus estimate is for a 1.5% decline m/m. Minutes from the last FOMC meeting...

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November 20, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are 2 to 5 bps higher across the curve while equity futures are slightly lower ahead of the open. The economic calendar is light this holiday-shortened week. Eyes will be on tomorrow’s release of the most recent FOMC minutes as investors look to get a...

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November 17, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are slightly lower and flatter to begin the day following softer retail sales out of the U.K. overnight. On the domestic calendar, housing starts unexpectedly grew in October, rising 1.9% to a 1.372-million-unit pace. The increase was due mostly to a...

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November 16, 2023 Headlines

A larger than expected increase in weekly jobless claims is fueling a 6-9 basis point decline in Treasury yields this morning. Initial jobless claims were 231,000 last week (220k expected), up from 218,000 the prior week, and continuing claims rose to 1.87 million,...

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November 15, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are unchanged to slightly higher in relatively quiet trading following yesterday’s outsized rally post-CPI. Yields fell 20-22 basis points yesterday in the 2-year to 5-year part of the curve as the market priced in an additional Fed rate cut in 2024...

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November 14, 2023 Headlines

Headline CPI came in lower than expected, showing no increase in October, likely taking a December rate hike off the table. The unexpected inflation number sent yields plunging, with the curve 11 to 18 bps lower. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, came in lower...

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November 13, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are slightly lower this morning and equity futures are in negative territory ahead of the open. The market is focused on tomorrow’s CPI release which is expected to show a 0.1% increase in October. A reading in line with consensus will give investors...

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November 9, 2023 Headlines

The Treasury curve is bear steepening to start the day in sympathy with similar moves in German and U.K. markets overnight. Initial jobless claims came in at 217,000 last week, as expected and down slightly from the prior week. According to the Mortgage Bankers...

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November 8, 2023 Headlines

The Treasury curve is flatter this morning, with front-end yields slightly higher on somewhat hawkish comments from ECB and Fed officials. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said yesterday that the Fed will likely need to raise the fed funds rate again to suppress inflation...

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November 7, 2023 Headlines

A modest risk-off tone in global markets has long-end Treasury yields down 2-3 basis points to start the day. Overnight, China reported softer exports, and Germany posted weaker industrial production. Australia’s central bank announced what is being portrayed as a...

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November 6, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are 3-5 basis points (bps) higher to start the week after a sharp, 3-day rally to end last week that sent long-end yields down 35 bps. The rally corresponded with what was perceived to be a dovish FOMC meeting on Wednesday and a slightly...

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November 3, 2023 Headlines

The US added 150,000 jobs in October, 30,000 fewer than expected. Additionally, the prior two months were revised lower, subtracting 101,000 jobs in total. The labor participation rate fell to 62.7%, its first decline in a year, while the unemployment rate ticked up...

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