Beyond the Headlines

October 22, 2020 Headlines

A modest risk-off trade in global markets is pushing Treasury yields lower this morning. In Europe, rising Covid cases and concerns that another lockdown may be imminent pushed Germany’s consumer confidence index into negative territory. Yesterday’s announcement by...

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October 21, 2020 Headlines

Progress in fiscal stimulus negotiations between House Democrats and the White House is contributing to higher and steeper Treasury yields this morning. Leaders from both sides said they are very close to an agreement, reportedly in the neighborhood of $2 trillion,...

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October 20, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are higher and steeper today with no obvious catalyst driving the move. There has been increased discussion of a “Blue Wave” on election day where Democrats win control of the White House and Senate (and maintain control of the House), which would...

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October 19, 2020 Headlines

Renewed hope for a new stimulus package is boosting risk assets this morning and pushing Treasury prices lower across the curve. Hope is likely the key word because there still appears to be a lot needed to get House Democrats, the White House, and Senate Republicans...

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October 16, 2020 Headlines

Treasury prices drifted higher overnight on continued concerns of rising Covid cases in Europe, but the market has reversed course this morning following a much better than expected retail sales report for September. Advance sales rose 1.9% over the month (0.8%...

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October 15, 2020 Headlines

New Covid-related restrictions across Europe is sparking a broad risk-off trade in global markets and driving Treasury prices higher. Rising Covid cases in Europe have governments grappling with potential new targeted lockdowns, and risk markets continue to discount...

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October 14, 2020 Headlines

The US Treasury curve bull-flattened overnight as Brexit talks remain stalled ahead of the upcoming summit and European countries continue to talk about implementing new lockdowns. In the US, additional stimulus measures are at an impasse with the Senate planning on...

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October 13, 2020 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower and flatter to start the holiday-shortened week. The action in U.S. bonds follows yesterday’s rally in German bonds, due in part to weak European economic data. S&P 500 futures are down 0.33% ahead of today’s open. The September CPI...

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October 9, 2020 Headlines

Treasuries are unchanged this morning while equity futures are pointing to a higher open in response to news of renewed stimulus talks. While there is still disagreement on the size of the deal, there appears to be at least some agreement between the House and the...

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October 8, 2020 Headlines

Following a relatively quiet overnight session, Treasury prices are unchanged to slightly higher across the curve. The market seems to have found support levels after yields rose to four-month highs yesterday afternoon. Yesterday’s release of the September 16 FOMC...

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October 7, 2020 Headlines

Financial markets have been whipsawed by conflicting tweets by President Trump regarding additional fiscal aid. The Dow fell nearly 600 points late in yesterday’s session when the president tweeted that he had instructed his representatives to end negotiations with...

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October 6, 2020 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed across much of the curve to start the day, and S&P 500 futures are pointing to a positive open for the index. Markets are awaiting Fed Chair Powell’s speech later this morning as part of a NABE conference, although it should be more...

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October 5, 2020 Headlines

Positive reports on both President Trump’s health and fiscal stimulus negotiations are boosting risk assets and driving Treasury yields higher and steeper. In Europe, talks of additional restrictions in France and the U.K. are picking up in response to a surge of...

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October 2, 2020 Headlines

News of President Trump and the First Lady testing positive for coronavirus has sparked a broad risk-off trade in financial markets. Treasury yields are lower and flatter, and S&P 500 futures are down 1.3% ahead of the open. Nonfarm payrolls added 661,000 jobs in...

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October 1, 2020 Headlines

Hope that a new Covid fiscal relief package is closer to getting done is boosting risk assets and pushing Treasury yields higher and steeper. Multiple media outlets are reporting that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin presented a $1.6 trillion relief package to House Speaker...

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September 30, 2020 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed to begin the last trading day of the third quarter. In unfortunate but not surprising news, retail store bankruptcies set a record in the first half of 2020, according to a report by BDO. On the global monetary policy front, ECB President...

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September 29, 2020 Headlines

It’s a quiet start to the day in financial markets with Treasuries and equities little changed at the moment. House Democrats have released a scaled-back $2.2 trillion Covid aid package as a follow up to recent negotiations with the White House and Senate Republicans....

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September 28, 2020 Headlines

Rates are essentially unchanged this morning while equity futures point to a higher open as attractive valuations brought investors to the table. The economic calendar is light today, with the only release on the docket the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook. Later...

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September 25, 2020 Headlines

In a continuation of this week’s market themes, concerns of fresh Covid-related restrictions in Europe and diminishing expectations of additional U.S. fiscal aid is weighing on risk assets this morning. Treasury yields are lower and flatter to start the day, and both...

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September 24, 2020 Headlines

A softer tone in risk markets overnight is sparking a modest bid for Treasuries this morning. S&P 500 futures are down -0.8% on general recovery concerns, fueled by the perception that Congress won’t be able to agree on additional fiscal support this year. As a...

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