Beyond the Headlines

February 6, 2023 Headlines

The bond market continues to reprice following Friday’s big payrolls surprise. Treasury yields are 13 basis points higher to start the day for 2-year to 5-year maturities and cumulatively up 32 basis points since Thursday’s close. Markets have been fighting Fed...

read more

February 3, 2023 Headlines

A much stronger than expected January jobs report is fueling an overdue sell-off in the bond market this morning. Nonfarm payrolls added a whopping 517,000 jobs last month, 329,000 more than expected, and the previous month was revised higher by 37,000 jobs. From the...

read more

February 2, 2023 Headlines

The post-FOMC rally in bonds and stocks continues this morning, with Treasury yields down 4-7 basis points and S&P 500 futures up 70 bps. Following yesterday’s meeting, the FOMC announced a 25 basis point rate hike, as expected, and the official statement said...

read more

February 1, 2023 Headlines

Yesterday’s rally in Treasures has carried forward to this morning’s trading session, with yields 2-5 basis points lower amid light, pre-FOMC volumes. In Europe, core CPI for the Eurozone, as a whole, was hotter than expected at 5.2% y/y in January, raising the...

read more

January 31, 2023 Headlines

A tamer than expected report on wage inflation is sparking a bid for Treasuries this morning, sending yields front-end yields 4-6 basis points lower. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose 1% in the fourth quarter, slightly below the 1.1% expected growth rate and down...

read more

January 30, 2023 Headlines

Treasuries are following European bond yields higher this morning following an upside surprise for Spain’s inflation rate, which rose to 5.8% y/y from 5.5% the prior month (4.8% expected). While seemingly insignificant in isolation, Spain’s inflation surprise...

read more

January 27, 2023 Headlines

The PCE inflation report for December was in line with expectations and continued the recent trend of cooling price growth from last year’s peak. Core PCE rose 0.3% m/m, and the year-over-metric slowed to 4.4%, down 30 basis points from the prior month. Personal...

read more

January 26, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields moved higher overnight on relatively light trading volumes and remain softer following the release of this morning’s economic data. Initial jobless claims surprised to the downside once again last week, coming in at 186,000 versus 205,000 expected, and...

read more

January 25, 2023 Headlines

Yields are slightly lower this morning as weaker corporate earnings sparked a flight to quality trade. The curve is 1 to 2 bps lower this morning while S&P Futures are down 0.92% ahead of the open. The market is also grappling with concerns over a possible...

read more

January 24, 2023 Headlines

Treasuries are little changed to start the day following a relatively quiet overnight session. U.S. equities are poised to give back some of the recent rally, with S&P 500 futures down 50 basis points as the market prepares for more big earnings announcements....

read more

January 23, 2023 Headlines

Hawkish comments from multiple ECB leaders fueled a modest sell-off in Treasuries amid light trading overnight. Fed watcher Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal wrote an article yesterday suggesting that Fed officials are likely to slow the pace of rate hikes to...

read more

January 20, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are continuing the climb started yesterday with the curve 5 to 6 bps higher this morning. Hawkish comments from Fed officials have been the catalyst for the move. Fed Vice Chair Brainard noted that “inflation remains high, and policy will to be...

read more

January 19, 2023 Headlines

Yesterday’s strong rally in Treasuries continued into the overnight session but halted following hawkish comments by European Central Bank leaders. Yields are 2-3 basis points higher across the curve, a modest retracement of yesterday’s action that saw yields fall...

read more

January 18, 2023 Headlines

The Bank of Japan’s surprise decision to maintain its yield curve control program has spark a rally in global government bonds. Treasury yields are 6-9 basis points lower across the curve to start the day. On the fiscal front, Republicans and Democrats continue to...

read more

January 17, 2023 Headlines

Long-end Treasury yields are 3-5 basis points higher to start the week as investors await the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) decision regarding its yield curve control (YCC) policy. The BOJ surprised markets in December by increasing its yield cap on 10-year government bonds,...

read more

January 13, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are 2-3 bps higher this morning and US equity futures are in the red following the release of US bank earnings. Yesterday’s CPI release gave investors hope of a tamer path for rate hikes but earnings numbers from JP Morgan, Bank of America, and the...

read more

January 12, 2023 Headlines

December CPI came in at -0.11% MoM, as expected, showing signs of slowdown in inflation. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs, rose by 0.3% MoM and on a YoY basis was up 5.7%. These tamer readings should give the Fed the ability to slow the pace of hikes....

read more

January 11, 2023 Headlines

Treasury yields are lower and the curve flatter to start the day in sympathy with an overnight rally in U.K./European bonds. The 10-year yield is down 5 basis points so far to 3.57%, while the 2-year yield is essentially unchanged at 4.24%. Markets now await...

read more

January 10, 2023 Headlines

Rates are up and equity futures are in the red this morning.  Treasury yields are 5 to 6 bps higher across the curve while S&P 500 and Dow futures are down roughly 0.43%. Hawkish Fed speak is the catalyst for this morning’s move. San Francisco Fed President Mary...

read more

January 9, 2023 Headlines

We start the week with only a very modest retracement of Friday’s seemingly over-done rally in Treasuries. Friday’s rally was induced by the cooler-than-expected wage growth figure for December, even though the overall report still conveyed a very tight labor market....

read more

Subscribe Today!

Subscribe to our email list and get the latest articles and announcements from ALM First.

All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest.

“ALM First” is a brand name for a financial services business conducted by ALM First Group, LLC (“ALM First”) through its wholly owned subsidiaries: ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC (“ALM First Financial Advisors”); ALM First Advisors, LLC (“ALM First Advisors”); and ALM First Analytics, LLC (“ALM First Analytics”).  Investment advisory services are offered through ALM First Financial Advisors, an SEC registered investment adviser.  Balance sheet advisory services are offered through ALM First Advisors.  Financial reporting services, loan introduction services, and other special project services are offered through ALM First Analytics.  Neither ALM First nor any of its subsidiaries provide legal, tax, or accounting advice.

INVESTMENT PRODUCTS ARE: • NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL GOVERNMENT AGENCY • NOT A DEPOSIT OR OTHER OBLIGATION OF, OR GUARANTEED BY, ALM FIRST OR ANY OF ITS AFFILIATES • SUBJECT TO INVESTMENT RISKS, INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOSS OF THE PRINCIPAL AMOUNT INVESTED.