Trading volumes were light overnight with Europe and the U.K. closed for holidays.
The Treasury curve is steepening to start the week, with long-end yields up 4-6 basis points. While the bond market was closed on Friday, the government released February income, spending, and PCE data. Personal income was a bit softer than expected, although the wages & salaries rose by a solid 0.8% m/m rate. Spending was much stronger than expected on an inflation-adjusted basis, rising 0.4% m/m. This will likely lead to upward revisions to Q1 GDP forecasts. For inflation, core PCE rose 0.3% m/m and 2.8% y/y in February, both as expected (i.e., not great for expectations of a sooner Fed pivot). This week’s calendar will be headlined by employment data, starting with tomorrow’s February JOLTS report and ending with the March jobs report on Friday. Regarding the latter, current Bloomberg consensus is calling for a 205,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls and a slight downtick in the headline unemployment rate to 3.8%.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/1/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 52.5 | — | 52.5 | — |
| 4/1/2024 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.70% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 4/1/2024 | ISM Manufacturing | 48.3 | — | 47.8 | — |
| 4/1/2024 | ISM Prices Paid | 53 | — | 52.5 | — |
| 4/1/2024 | ISM New Orders | 49.8 | — | 49.2 | — |
| 4/1/2024 | ISM Employment | 47.5 | — | 45.9 | — |
| 4/2/2024 | JOLTS Job Openings | 8770k | — | 8863k | — |
| 4/2/2024 | Factory Orders | 1.00% | — | -3.60% | — |
| 4/2/2024 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | -0.80% | — |
| 4/2/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.40% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 4/2/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 4/2/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 4/2/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | -0.40% | — |
| 4/2/2024 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.90m | — | 15.81m | — |
| 4/3/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -0.70% | — |
| 4/3/2024 | ADP Employment Change | 150k | — | 140k | — |
| 4/3/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 51.7 | — | 51.7 | — |
| 4/3/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 52.2 | — |
| 4/3/2024 | ISM Services Index | 52.8 | — | 52.6 | — |
| 4/3/2024 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 58.6 | — |
| 4/3/2024 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 48 | — |
| 4/3/2024 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 56.1 | — |
| 4/4/2024 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 8.80% | — |
| 4/4/2024 | Trade Balance | -$67.0b | — | -$67.4b | — |
| 4/4/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 214k | — | 210k | — |
| 4/4/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1810k | — | 1819k | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 205k | — | 275k | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Change in Private Payrolls | 165k | — | 223k | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 10k | — | -4k | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.90% | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.10% | — | 4.30% | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.50% | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.30% | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Consumer Credit | $16.400b | — | $19.495b | — |
| 4/8/2024 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.04% | — |
