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Author Jason Haley

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It’s a more modest continuation of yesterday’s market action as participants await President Trump’s “important update on Iran” at 9pm ET tonight.

Treasury yields are 2 basis points lower across the curve, oil prices are down more than 2%, and S&P 500 futures are up 0.75% as of 8:28am ET. The MBA mortgage activity index fell 10.4% last week amid a 17.3% decline in refinance applications and a 2.6% decline in new purchase applications. According to the survey, the average 30-year conventional contract rate rose 14 bps to 6.57%, the highest since last August.  February retail sales surprised to the upside, with the control group measure (used in GDP calculation) up 0.5% m/m versus 0.3% expected. That is the highest monthly growth rate for the control group since last October and follows a downwardly-revised 0.2% growth rate the prior month. Lastly, the ADP report on growth in private sector payrolls showed 62,000 jobs added in March, 22,000 more than expected. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show 75,000 jobs added to private payrolls.

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
4/1/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —-10.40%-10.50%     —
4/1/2026ADP Employment Change40k62k63k66k
4/1/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM0.50%0.60%-0.20%-0.10%
4/1/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM0.30%0.50%0.00%     —
4/1/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.40%0.30%0.20%
4/1/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.30%0.50%0.30%0.20%
4/1/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52.4     —52.4     —
4/1/2026ISM Manufacturing52.3     —52.4     —
4/1/2026ISM Prices Paid74     —70.5     —
4/1/2026ISM New Orders54.5     —55.8     —
4/1/2026Business Inventories0.00%     —0.10%     —
4/1/2026ISM Employment49     —48.8     —
4/1/2026Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.86m     —15.75m     —
4/2/2026Challenger Job Cuts YoY     —     —-71.90%     —
4/2/2026Challenger Job Cuts Total     —     —48307     —
4/2/2026Trade Balance-$60.9b     —-$54.5b     —
4/2/2026Imports MoM-0.20%     —-0.70%     —
4/2/2026Exports MoM-2.30%     —5.50%     —
4/2/2026Initial Jobless Claims212k     —210k     —
4/2/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg205.00k     —210.50k     —
4/2/2026Continuing Claims1836k     —1819k     —
4/3/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls65k     —-92k     —
4/3/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —     —-69k     —
4/3/2026Change in Private Payrolls75k     —-86k     —
4/3/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-4k     —-12k     —
4/3/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —     —6k     —
4/3/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%     —0.40%     —
4/3/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%     —3.80%     —
4/3/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.3     —34.3     —
4/3/2026Unemployment Rate4.40%     —4.40%     —
4/3/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.10%     —62.00%     —
4/3/2026Underemployment Rate7.90%     —7.90%     —
4/3/2026S&P Global US Services PMI51.1     —51.1     —
4/3/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI51.4     —51.4     —
4/6/2026ISM Reschedules March Services PMI to April 6    
4/6/2026ISM Services Index54.9     —56.1     —
4/6/2026ISM Services Prices Paid     —     —63     —
4/6/2026ISM Services New Orders     —     —58.6     —
4/6/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —51.8     —
4/7/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —10.000k     —
4/7/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —0.00%     —
4/7/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.40%     —
4/7/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —     —     —
4/7/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —-0.10%     —
4/7/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.00%     —
4/7/2026Consumer Credit     —     —$8.050b     —
4/8/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-10.40%     —
4/8/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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