Financial markets are off to a better start this week, with U.S. equity futures higher and Treasury yields lower.
There were two stories late last week that helped ease investor fears somewhat, at least for now. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the Fed is ‘absolutely’ ready to step in and help stabilize markets if needed. Later in the day, the White House announced temporary exemptions from the 125% China tariffs for a range of popular electronics, including phones, laptops, TVs, etc. However, President Trump took to social media yesterday, warning that no companies are “getting off the hook,” implying that the exemption may be short-lived.
Until the White House provides more clarity on the tariff process and ultimate objectives, market volatility should remain elevated, and consumer and business sentiment measures will likely remain depressed as well. There has been less reaction to economic data releases since the “Liberation Day” announcement, and that should remain the case until there is more clarity on trade policy. That said, March retail sales data will be released on Wednesday and could perhaps reveal any early impacts of deteriorating sentiment on consumer spending.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date Time | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/14/2025 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.13% | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | -13 | — | -20 | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | 1.40% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | 2.10% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 20.00% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 1.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.60% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.60% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | — | — | -19.3 | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.20% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.90% | — | 78.20% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 38 | — | 39 | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | -$45.2b | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$48.8b | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Housing Starts | 1415k | — | 1501k | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | -5.70% | — | 11.20% | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Building Permits | 1450k | — | 1459k | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -0.60% | — | -1.00% | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 223k | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 4 | — | 12.5 | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 223k | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1865k | — | 1850k | — |
| 4/21/2025 | Leading Index | -0.40% | — | -0.30% | — |
