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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are relatively flat to start the day following the March PPI release.

The headline PPI number came in well below expectations, with the reported March number of 0.5% MoM growth versus expectations of 1.1% (YoY 4.0% vs 4.6% expectation). Though the components that feed through into PCE inflation are somewhat less friendly, with airfares surging 4.1%, portfolio management 1.0%, and various medical indexes all showing positive price gains. That explains why the fixed income reaction has been relatively muted on balance. After yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 has now fully recovered its war-related losses and is now back positive on the year. Equity futures point to a slightly higher open after news about continued peace talks. Banks are in the spotlight for the week as they continue to report earnings. Citi is up over 1% premarket after reporting strong 1Q earnings from strong equities and FICC sales and trading.

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
4/14/2026NFIB Small Business Optimism97.995.898.8     —
4/14/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —39.250k26.000k     —
4/14/2026PPI Final Demand MoM1.10%0.50%0.70%0.50%
4/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM0.40%0.10%0.50%0.30%
4/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM0.40%0.20%0.50%     —
4/14/2026PPI Final Demand YoY4.60%4.00%3.40%     —
4/14/2026PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY4.10%3.80%3.90%3.80%
4/14/2026PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY3.80%3.60%3.50%     —
4/15/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-0.80%     —
4/15/2026Empire Manufacturing0     —-0.2     —
4/15/2026Import Price Index MoM2.30%     —1.30%     —
4/15/2026Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM0.30%     —1.20%     —
4/15/2026Import Price Index YoY4.40%     —1.30%     —
4/15/2026Export Price Index MoM1.50%     —1.50%     —
4/15/2026Export Price Index YoY     —     —3.50%     —
4/15/2026NAHB Housing Market Index37     —38     —
4/15/2026Fed Releases Beige Book    
4/15/2026Total Net TIC Flows     —     —-$25.0b     —
4/15/2026Net Long-term TIC Flows     —     —$15.5b     —
4/16/2026New York Fed Services Business Activity     —     —-22.6     —
4/16/2026Initial Jobless Claims214k     —219k     —
4/16/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —209.50k     —
4/16/2026Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook10     —18.1     —
4/16/2026Continuing Claims1810k     —1794k     —
4/16/2026Industrial Production MoM0.10%     —0.20%     —
4/16/2026Manufacturing (SIC) Production0.10%     —0.20%     —
4/16/2026Capacity Utilization76.30%     —76.30%     —
4/21/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —39.250k     —
4/21/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-23.9     —
4/21/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM1.20%     —0.60%     —
4/21/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM1.20%     —0.50%     —
4/21/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%     —0.40%     —
4/21/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.20%     —0.50%     —
4/21/2026Business Inventories     —     —-0.10%     —
4/21/2026Pending Home Sales MoM     —     —1.80%     —
4/21/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-0.60%     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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