It’s another relatively quiet start to the day with Treasuries and U.S. equity futures both little changed in early trading.
It feels more like a wait-and-see mode while awaiting an example of a negotiated deal with a notable trading partner. Expected volatility in stocks (VIX index) and interest rates (MOVE index) remain elevated but have come down from the highs. The VIX index exceeded the 50-level last week for only the third time in its 35-year history, the other times being the 2008 financial crisis and March 2020 (Covid). On the data front, the Empire Manufacturing Index (NY State region) contracted less than expected in April, but both current and 6-months forward prices paid increased, and hours worked shrank. Import prices rose less than expected in March, the period prior to the April 2 tariffs announcement.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/15/2025 | Empire Manufacturing | -13.5 | -8.1 | -20 | — |
| 4/15/2025 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.00% | -0.10% | 0.40% | 0.20% |
| 4/15/2025 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.40% | 0.10% |
| 4/15/2025 | Import Price Index YoY | 1.40% | 0.90% | 2.00% | 1.60% |
| 4/15/2025 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.10% | 0.50% |
| 4/15/2025 | Export Price Index YoY | 1.80% | 2.40% | 2.10% | 2.60% |
| 4/16/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 20.00% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 1.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.60% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.60% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | -12.4 | — | -19.3 | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.20% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.90% | — | 78.20% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 38 | — | 39 | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | -$45.2b | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$48.8b | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Housing Starts | 1420k | — | 1501k | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | -5.40% | — | 11.20% | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Building Permits | 1448k | — | 1459k | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -0.80% | — | -1.00% | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 223k | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 2.5 | — | 12.5 | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 223k | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1870k | — | 1850k | — |
| 4/21/2025 | Leading Index | -0.40% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 4/22/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -32.5 | — |
| 4/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -4 | — |
| 4/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -14 | — |
