The theme of falling interest rate volatility continued overnight in the Treasury market.
The ICE BofA MOVE Index, which tracks expected rate volatility using 1-month options on SOFR swap rates across the curve, remains above pre-Liberation Day levels but is poised to fall for a third consecutive day, barring any major events/headlines today. Regarding tariffs, China has listed several conditions before it will agree to trade talks with the Trump administration, including reigning in disparaging remarks by members of Trump’s cabinet, according to a Bloomberg article this morning. Other conditions listed were a more consistent US position on trade and willingness to address Chinese concerns related to sanctions and Taiwan.
Retail sales were mixed in March. The headline figure matched expectations, rising 1.4% m/m, but the control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, came in at 0.4% m/m vs. 0.6% expected. On a positive note, the February data was revised higher. Multiple Fed leaders will speak today, including Fed Chair Powell this afternoon.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/16/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -8.50% | 20.00% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Retail Sales Advance MoM | 1.40% | 1.40% | 0.20% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.30% | 0.70% |
| 4/16/2025 | Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas | 0.60% | 0.80% | 0.50% | 0.80% |
| 4/16/2025 | Retail Sales Control Group | 0.60% | 0.40% | 1.00% | 1.30% |
| 4/16/2025 | New York Fed Services Business Activity | -12.1 | -19.8 | -19.3 | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Industrial Production MoM | -0.20% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Capacity Utilization | 77.90% | — | 78.20% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Manufacturing (SIC) Production | 0.20% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Business Inventories | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/16/2025 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 38 | — | 39 | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Net Long-term TIC Flows | — | — | -$45.2b | — |
| 4/16/2025 | Total Net TIC Flows | — | — | -$48.8b | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Housing Starts | 1420k | — | 1501k | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | -5.40% | — | 11.20% | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Building Permits | 1450k | — | 1459k | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -0.60% | — | -1.00% | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 223k | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 2 | — | 12.5 | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 223k | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1870k | — | 1850k | — |
| 4/21/2025 | Leading Index | -0.40% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 4/22/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -32.5 | — |
| 4/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -4 | — |
| 4/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -14 | — |
| 4/23/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -8.50% | — |
| 4/23/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 50.2 | — |
| 4/23/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 54.4 | — |
| 4/23/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 53.5 | — |
| 4/23/2025 | New Home Sales | 680k | — | 676k | — |
| 4/23/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | 0.60% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 4/23/2025 | Fed Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 4/23/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | — | — |
| 4/23/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | — | — |
