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Author Jason Haley

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Estimated

Treasury yields are 2-3 basis points lower on the front-end of the curve as some modest dip buying emerges. 

As of yesterday’s close, the 5-year Treasury yield was up 85 basis points year-to-date and just 25 basis points below the cycle high of 4.95% last October. Fed Chair Powell attempted to extinguish any lingering dovish thoughts yesterday during a Q&A session. “The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence,” said Powell. “If inflation does persist, we can maintain the current level of restriction for as long as needed.” The MBA mortgage applications index rose 3.3% last week, led by a 5% increase in purchase applications, the first weekly increase for that category since the week ended March 8. According to the MBA survey, the average 30-year conventional contract rate rose 12 basis points to a new 2024 high of 7.13%.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
4/17/2024MBA Mortgage Applications—3.30%0.10%—
4/17/2024Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book    
4/17/2024Total Net TIC Flows——-$8.8b—
4/17/2024Net Long-term TIC Flows——$36.1b—
4/18/2024Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook2—3.2—
4/18/2024Initial Jobless Claims215k—211k—
4/18/2024Continuing Claims1817k—1817k—
4/18/2024Leading Index-0.10%—0.10%—
4/18/2024Existing Home Sales4.20m—4.38m—
4/18/2024Existing Home Sales MoM-4.10%—9.50%—
4/19/2024Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey    
4/22/2024Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index——0.05—
4/23/2024Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity——-18.3—
4/23/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI——51.9—
4/23/2024S&P Global US Services PMI——51.7—
4/23/2024S&P Global US Composite PMI——52.1—
4/23/2024Revisions: Retail Sales    
4/23/2024New Home Sales673k—662k—
4/23/2024New Home Sales MoM1.60%—-0.30%—
4/23/2024Richmond Fed Manufact. Index——-11—
4/23/2024Richmond Fed Business Conditions——-8—
4/24/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——3.30%—
4/24/2024Durable Goods Orders2.80%—1.30%—
4/24/2024Durables Ex Transportation0.20%—0.30%—
4/24/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air——0.70%—
4/24/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air——-0.60%—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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