Treasury yields are modestly higher across the curve this morning, and S&P 500 futures are pointing higher following yesterday’s 2.2% loss.
Fed Chair Powell is in President Trump’s crosshairs (again), saying his “termination cannot come soon enough” in a social media post this morning. Trump’s criticism comes after the ECB cut its benchmark rate today for the 7th time since June on a weaker economic outlook due to trade tensions. It was also likely in response to Powell’s speech yesterday in which he said the Fed faces a “challenging scenario” and has less flexibility to ease monetary policy given the potential inflation impact of the trade war.
Housing starts fell 11.4% in March to a 1.324-million-unit annual pace, driven by a 14.2% decline in single-family starts. The decline in single-family starts was the most in a year and coincides with housing affordability measures holding near all-time lows amid high mortgage rates and home prices. On a positive note, initial jobless claims continue to show little stress in the labor market, falling 9,000 last week to 215,000.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/17/2025 | Housing Starts | 1420k | 1324k | 1501k | 1494k |
| 4/17/2025 | Housing Starts MoM | -5.40% | -11.40% | 11.20% | 9.80% |
| 4/17/2025 | Building Permits | 1450k | 1482k | 1459k | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Building Permits MoM | -0.60% | 1.60% | -1.00% | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook | 2.2 | -26.4 | 12.5 | — |
| 4/17/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | 215k | 223k | 224k |
| 4/17/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 221k | 223k | 223k |
| 4/17/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1870k | 1885k | 1850k | 1844k |
| 4/21/2025 | Leading Index | -0.40% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 4/22/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -32.5 | — |
| 4/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | — | — | -4 | — |
| 4/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -14 | — |
| 4/23/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -8.50% | — |
| 4/23/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 50.2 | — |
| 4/23/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 54.4 | — |
| 4/23/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 53.5 | — |
| 4/23/2025 | New Home Sales | 683k | — | 676k | — |
| 4/23/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | 1.00% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 4/23/2025 | Fed Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 4/23/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | 1482k | — |
| 4/23/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | 1.60% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | — | — | 0.18 | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.50% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 215k | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 221k | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1885k | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 4.13m | — | 4.26m | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -3.10% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -2 | — |
