Site Search

Looking for something? Use the search bar below or visit our Resources page.


Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

A quiet overnight session in global markets is teeing up a relatively tranquil end to the week for US markets.

President Trump suggested progress is being made in Iran negotiations, but details remain elusive. There are no economic releases today, which adds to the quiet narrative today. Since the Iran conflict began at the beginning of March, Treasury yields are up 40 basis points (bps) in the 2-5 year part of the curve, but those yields have fallen 20-22 bps since the recent peak on March 26. At that time, fed funds futures had completely priced out any rate cuts for 2026 and were instead pricing a 50% probability that the next Fed move would be a 25-basis point rate hike by October. As it stands today, fed funds futures are pricing essentially zero probability of a rate hike and a 30% chance of a rate cut by year end. That lines up with the aforementioned volatility in front-end Treasury yields over that timeframe.    

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
4/21/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —39.250k
4/21/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity     —     —-23.9
4/21/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM1.40%     —0.60%
4/21/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM1.40%     —0.50%
4/21/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.20%     —0.40%
4/21/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.20%     —0.50%
4/21/2026Business Inventories0.30%     —-0.10%
4/21/2026Pending Home Sales MoM0.30%     —1.80%
4/21/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY     —     —-0.60%
4/22/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —1.80%
4/23/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index     —     —-0.11
4/23/2026Initial Jobless Claims210k     —207k
4/23/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —209.75k
4/23/2026Continuing Claims1819k     —1818k
4/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52.5     —52.3
4/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI50.3     —49.8
4/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI50.4     —50.3
4/23/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity11     —11
4/24/2026Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey   
4/24/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment48.5     —47.6
4/24/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —50.1
4/24/2026U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —46.1
4/24/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —4.80%
4/24/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.40%
4/24/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —15
4/27/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-0.2

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

  Headline Disclaimer

ALM First offers investment advisory services through ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC, which is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). SEC registration does not constitute an endorsement of the firm by the SEC nor does it indicate that the firm has attained a particular level of skill or ability. The information contained herein does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation for you to purchase or sell any specific security. You are solely responsible for reviewing the content and for any actions you take or choose not to take based on your review of such content.

Information contained herein was derived from third party sources as indicated. While such information is believed to be reliable, no representation or warranty is made concerning the accuracy of any information presented. We have not and will not independently verify this information. Where such sources include opinions and projections, such opinions and projections should be ascribed only to the applicable third party source and not to ALM First.

Statements herein that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance are forward-looking statements. Such “forward-looking” statements are based on various assumptions, which assumptions may not prove to be correct. Accordingly, there can be no assurance that such assumptions and statements will accurately predict future events or actual performance. No representation or warranty can be given that the estimates, opinions or assumptions made herein will prove to be accurate. Any projections and forward-looking statements included herein should be considered speculative and are qualified in their entirety by the information and risks disclosed in the confidential offering document. Actual results for any period may or may not approximate such forward-looking statements. No representations or warranties whatsoever are made by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC or any other person or entity as to the future profitability of investments recommended by ALM First Financial Advisors, LLC.



Recent Beyond The Headlines


  Headlines RSS
Strategic Partners

Let’s Work Together

ALM First is your agile partner with a trusted history of delivering results.