Treasuries are rallying and stock futures are selling off as market anxiety remains high, leading up to the White House’s “Liberation Day” tariffs announcement later today.
Despite President Trump stating on Monday that the tariff plan had been “settled,” reports over the last 24 hours suggest that the plan has been in flux as aides and cabinet members debate various rollout options. For markets, the worst-case scenario is likely a 20% universal tariff that begins immediately. The best-case scenario (other than no tariffs at all) would be more targeted levies that are rolled out over time. The latest guidance is that the announcement will come at 4 pm ET after the stock market closes. While much attention is being paid to this announcement, rightfully so given its potential impact on growth and inflation, there is still the March jobs report to be released on Friday.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Period | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/2/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 28-Mar | — | -1.60% | -2.00% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | ADP Employment Change | Mar | 120k | 155k | 77k | 84k |
| 4/2/2025 | Factory Orders | Feb | 0.50% | — | 1.70% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | Feb | 0.40% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | Feb F | 0.90% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | Feb F | 0.70% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | Feb F | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| 4/2/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | Feb F | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/3/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | Mar | — | — | 103.20% | — |
| 4/3/2025 | Trade Balance | Feb | -$123.5b | — | -$131.4b | — |
| 4/3/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 29-Mar | 226k | — | 224k | — |
| 4/3/2025 | Continuing Claims | 22-Mar | 1870k | — | 1856k | — |
| 4/3/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | Mar F | 54.2 | — | 54.3 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | Mar F | 53.4 | — | 53.5 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | ISM Services Index | Mar | 52.9 | — | 53.5 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | Mar | 63 | — | 62.6 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | Mar | 51.5 | — | 52.2 | — |
| 4/3/2025 | ISM Services Employment | Mar | 53 | — | 53.9 | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | Mar | 140k | — | 151k | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | Mar | 135k | — | 140k | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | Mar | 0k | — | 10k | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | Mar | — | — | -2k | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Unemployment Rate | Mar | 4.10% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | Mar | 62.40% | — | 62.40% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Underemployment Rate | Mar | — | — | 8.00% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | Mar | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | Mar | 4.00% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | Mar | 34.2 | — | 34.1 | — |
| 4/7/2025 | Consumer Credit | Feb | — | — | $18.084b | — |
| 4/8/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | Mar | — | — | 100.7 | — |
| 4/9/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | 4-Apr | — | — | -1.60% | — |
| 4/9/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | Feb | — | — | -1.30% | — |
| 4/9/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | Feb F | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/9/2025 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | 19-Mar | — | — | — | — |
