The Treasury curve is twisting this morning with 5-year and longer maturities 3-9 basis points higher and the 2-year/10-year spread 9 basis points steeper.
The rise in long-end yields coincides with further dollar weakness, both being attributed somewhat to President Trump’s criticism of Fed Chair Powell and the general threat to Fed independence. S&P 500 futures are down a little more than 1% approximately 45 minutes before the open. The economic calendar is relatively light, but then again, markets will likely remain fixated on headlines emerging from the White House on tariffs and related matters. Several Fed leaders speak this week, including an appearance by Chicago Fed President Austin Goolsbee on CNBC this morning.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/21/2025 | Leading Index | -0.50% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 4/22/2025 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | — | -32.5 | — |
| 4/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | -6 | — | -4 | — |
| 4/22/2025 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -14 | — |
| 4/23/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -8.50% | — |
| 4/23/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49 | — | 50.2 | — |
| 4/23/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 52.8 | — | 54.4 | — |
| 4/23/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 52.2 | — | 53.5 | — |
| 4/23/2025 | New Home Sales | 683k | — | 676k | — |
| 4/23/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | 1.00% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 4/23/2025 | Fed Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 4/23/2025 | Building Permits | — | — | 1482k | — |
| 4/23/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | 1.60% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.18 | — | 0.18 | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 1.80% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 222k | — | 215k | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 221k | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1885k | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 4.15m | — | 4.26m | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -2.60% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -2 | — |
| 4/25/2025 | Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 50.8 | — | 50.8 | — |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 56.5 | — |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 47.2 | — |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 6.70% | — |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 4.40% | — |
| 4/25/2025 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 0 | — |
| 4/28/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -16.3 | — |
