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Author Jason Haley

Published

Estimated

Front-end Treasury yields are moving higher following a better than expected retail sales report.

The retail sales control group, which is used in the GDP calculation, rose 0.7% m/m in March versus expectations of a more modest 0.2% gain, and the prior month was revised higher as well. The control group excludes the impact of higher oil prices, and it was the highest monthly gain for this measure since June of last year.

The bond market will also be paying attention to the first confirmation hearing of Kevin Warsh before the Senate Banking Committee, particularly his comments on the Fed’s balance sheet and interest rate policy. Republican Senator Thom Tillis has said that he will block the nomination until the DOJ drops its case against Jerome Powell, so this confirmation process could potentially drag out for several months. Powell’s term as Fed Chair is scheduled to expire at the end of May.

Jason Haley
President & Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
4/21/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —54.750k39.250k40.250k
4/21/2026Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity-19.8-16.5-23.9     —
4/21/2026Retail Sales Advance MoM1.40%1.70%0.60%0.70%
4/21/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM1.40%1.90%0.50%0.70%
4/21/2026Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas0.30%0.60%0.40%0.60%
4/21/2026Retail Sales Control Group0.20%0.70%0.50%0.60%
4/21/2026Business Inventories0.30%     —-0.10%     —
4/21/2026Pending Home Sales MoM0.50%     —1.80%     —
4/21/2026Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-3.00%     —-0.60%     —
4/22/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —1.80%     —
4/23/2026Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index-0.13     —-0.11     —
4/23/2026Initial Jobless Claims210k     —207k     —
4/23/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —209.75k     —
4/23/2026Continuing Claims1817k     —1818k     —
4/23/2026S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI52.5     —52.3     —
4/23/2026S&P Global US Services PMI50.5     —49.8     —
4/23/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI50.6     —50.3     —
4/23/2026Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity10     —11     —
4/24/2026Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey    
4/24/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment48.5     —47.6     —
4/24/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions50.7     —50.1     —
4/24/2026U. of Mich. Expectations47.4     —46.1     —
4/24/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation4.80%     —4.80%     —
4/24/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.40%     —3.40%     —
4/24/2026Kansas City Fed Services Activity     —     —15     —
4/27/2026Dallas Fed Manf. Activity     —     —-0.2     —
4/28/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —54.750k     —
4/28/2026FHFA House Price Index MoM     —     —0.10%     —
4/28/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA     —     —0.16%     —
4/28/2026S&P Cotality CS 20-City YoY NSA     —     —1.18%     —
4/28/2026S&P Cotality CS US HPI YoY NSA     —     —0.91%     —
4/28/2026Richmond Fed Manufact. Index     —     —0     —
4/28/2026Richmond Fed Business Conditions     —     —2     —
4/28/2026Conf. Board Consumer Confidence89.8     —91.8     —
4/28/2026Conf. Board Present Situation     —     —123.3     —
4/28/2026Conf. Board Expectations     —     —70.9     —
4/28/2026Dallas Fed Services Activity     —     —-13.3     —

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

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