Treasury yields are up another 2-4 basis points in reaction to European economic data and today’s upcoming 2-year auction.
Preliminary April PMI data from Europe was mixed but generally improved, with Germany’s composite reading (manufacturing and services) moving into expansion territory for the first time since last June. U.S. PMI data will be released later this morning. The 2-year Treasury yield briefly touched 5% this morning and is on track to reach the highest closing level since November 13. Year-to-date, the front-end benchmark is up 74 basis points. The Fed is now in the blackout period for any public comments ahead of next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/23/2024 | Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity | — | -12.4 | -18.3 | — |
| 4/23/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 52 | — | 51.9 | — |
| 4/23/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 52 | — | 51.7 | — |
| 4/23/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 52 | — | 52.1 | — |
| 4/23/2024 | Revisions: Retail Sales | ||||
| 4/23/2024 | New Home Sales | 668k | — | 662k | — |
| 4/23/2024 | New Home Sales MoM | 0.90% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 4/23/2024 | Richmond Fed Manufact. Index | -8 | — | -11 | — |
| 4/23/2024 | Richmond Fed Business Conditions | — | — | -8 | — |
| 4/24/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 4/24/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | 2.50% | — | 1.30% | — |
| 4/24/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/24/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 4/24/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | -0.60% | — |
| 4/25/2024 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.50% | — | 3.40% | — |
| 4/25/2024 | Personal Consumption | 3.00% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 4/25/2024 | GDP Price Index | 3.00% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 4/25/2024 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 3.40% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/25/2024 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$91.0b | — | -$91.8b | -$90.3b |
| 4/25/2024 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.50% | — | 0.50% | 0.60% |
| 4/25/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.50% | — |
| 4/25/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | — | 212k | — |
| 4/25/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1815k | — | 1812k | — |
| 4/25/2024 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.20% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 4/25/2024 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -2.80% | — | -2.20% | — |
| 4/25/2024 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -5 | — | -7 | — |
| 4/26/2024 | Personal Income | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | Personal Spending | 0.60% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | PCE Deflator YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 77.9 | — | 77.9 | — |
| 4/26/2024 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 79.3 | — |
| 4/26/2024 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 77 | — |
| 4/26/2024 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.10% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.00% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 7 | — |
| 4/29/2024 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -14.4 | — |
| 4/30/2024 | Employment Cost Index | 1.00% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/30/2024 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 4/30/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | 0.14% | — |
| 4/30/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 6.03% | — |
| 4/30/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 6.59% | — |
| 4/30/2024 | MNI Chicago PMI | 47 | — | 41.4 | — |
| 4/30/2024 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 104 | — | 104.7 | — |
| 4/30/2024 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 151 | — |
| 4/30/2024 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 73.8 | — |
| 4/30/2024 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -5.5 | — |
