Treasury yields are sharply lower/flatter, and US equity futures are higher after President Trump reversed course on China tariffs and Jerome Powell amid market unease.
Regarding China, Trump said that tariffs “will come down substantially” and didn’t see the need to “play hardball” with Chinese Premier Xi Jinping. Separately, President Trump said he has “no intention” of firing Fed Chair Powell just days after threatening that. Long-end Treasury yields are 12-15 bps lower on the headlines, and front-end yields are unchanged to 7 bps lower (2yr/10yr yield spread -10 bps). S&P 500 futures are up more than 2% an hour ahead of the open. President Trump’s comments on China came not long after Treasury Secretary Bessent was reported to have said that the US-China trade war was “not sustainable” and that both sides would have to deescalate during a speech closed to the public and media.
On the data front, the MBA mortgage applications index fell 12.7% last week amid a 20% decline in refi applications during the holiday-shortened week. This follows a 12.4% decline in refi applications the prior week, coinciding with a 9 basis point increase in the average 30-year conventional contract rate to 6.9% (+29 bps over the last two weeks).
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/23/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -12.70% | -8.50% | — |
| 4/23/2025 | Building Permits | — | 1467k | 1482k | — |
| 4/23/2025 | Building Permits MoM | — | 0.50% | 1.60% | — |
| 4/23/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49 | — | 50.2 | — |
| 4/23/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 52.6 | — | 54.4 | — |
| 4/23/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 52 | — | 53.5 | — |
| 4/23/2025 | New Home Sales | 685k | — | 676k | — |
| 4/23/2025 | New Home Sales MoM | 1.30% | — | 1.80% | — |
| 4/23/2025 | Fed Releases Beige Book | ||||
| 4/24/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.12 | — | 0.18 | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 2.00% | — | 1.00% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | -0.20% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 222k | — | 215k | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 221k | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1863k | — | 1885k | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 4.13m | — | 4.26m | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -3.10% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -5 | — | -2 | — |
| 4/25/2025 | Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 50.6 | — | 50.8 | — |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 56.5 | — |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 47.2 | — |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 6.80% | — | 6.70% | — |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 4.40% | — | 4.40% | — |
| 4/25/2025 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 0 | — |
| 4/28/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -16.3 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$147.7b | — | -$147.9b | -$147.8b |
| 4/29/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | 0.46% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 4.67% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 4.08% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 7568k | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.50% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3195k | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1790k | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 88.5 | — | 92.9 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 134.5 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 65.2 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -11.3 | — |
| 4/30/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -12.70% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | ADP Employment Change | — | — | 155k | — |
| 4/30/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 0.20% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Consumption | — | — | 4.00% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | GDP Price Index | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Employment Cost Index | 1.00% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | — | — | 47.6 | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Real Personal Spending | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -7.20% | — |
