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Author Jason Haley

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An upside surprise in Australia’s CPI rate sparked a global selloff in government bonds, with Treasury yields currently up 4-5 basis points across the curve. 

This reverses some of yesterday’s rally in response to a softer than expected U.S. PMI report. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index slipped 2.7% last week, with both purchase (-1%) and refinance (-5.6%) applications lower over the week. According to the MBA survey, the average 30-year conventional contract rate rose 11 bps to a fresh 2024 high of 7.24%, 66 bps below the cycle peak of 7.9% reached last October. Durable goods orders for March were in line with expectations, with core orders rising 0.2% m/m.

Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer

DateEventSurveyActualPriorRevised
4/24/2024MBA Mortgage Applications—-2.70%3.30%—
4/24/2024Durable Goods Orders2.50%2.60%1.30%0.70%
4/24/2024Durables Ex Transportation0.20%0.20%0.30%0.10%
4/24/2024Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.20%0.20%0.70%0.40%
4/24/2024Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.20%0.20%-0.60%—
4/25/2024GDP Annualized QoQ2.50%—3.40%—
4/25/2024Personal Consumption3.00%—3.30%—
4/25/2024GDP Price Index3.00%—1.60%—
4/25/2024Core PCE Price Index QoQ3.40%—2.00%—
4/25/2024Advance Goods Trade Balance-$91.0b—-$91.8b-$90.3b
4/25/2024Retail Inventories MoM0.50%—0.50%0.60%
4/25/2024Wholesale Inventories MoM0.30%—0.50%—
4/25/2024Initial Jobless Claims215k—212k—
4/25/2024Continuing Claims1814k—1812k—
4/25/2024Pending Home Sales MoM0.40%—1.60%—
4/25/2024Pending Home Sales NSA YoY-3.00%—-2.20%—
4/25/2024Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity-5—-7—
4/26/2024Personal Income0.50%—0.30%—
4/26/2024Personal Spending0.60%—0.80%—
4/26/2024Real Personal Spending0.30%—0.40%—
4/26/2024PCE Deflator MoM0.30%—0.30%—
4/26/2024PCE Deflator YoY2.60%—2.50%—
4/26/2024PCE Core Deflator MoM0.30%—0.30%—
4/26/2024PCE Core Deflator YoY2.70%—2.80%—
4/26/2024U. of Mich. Sentiment77.9—77.9—
4/26/2024U. of Mich. Current Conditions——79.3—
4/26/2024U. of Mich. Expectations——77—
4/26/2024U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation——3.10%—
4/26/2024U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation3.00%—3.00%—
4/26/2024Kansas City Fed Services Activity——7—
4/29/2024Dallas Fed Manf. Activity——-14.4—
4/30/2024Employment Cost Index1.00%—0.90%—
4/30/2024FHFA House Price Index MoM——-0.10%—
4/30/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA——0.14%—
4/30/2024S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA——6.03%—
4/30/2024S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA——6.59%—
4/30/2024MNI Chicago PMI45.3—41.4—
4/30/2024Conf. Board Consumer Confidence104.1—104.7—
4/30/2024Conf. Board Present Situation——151—
4/30/2024Conf. Board Expectations——73.8—
4/30/2024Dallas Fed Services Activity——-5.5—
5/1/2024MBA Mortgage Applications——-2.70%—
5/1/2024ADP Employment Change180k—184k—
5/1/2024S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI——49.9—
5/1/2024Construction Spending MoM0.30%—-0.30%—
5/1/2024JOLTS Job Openings——8756k—
5/1/2024ISM Manufacturing50.1—50.3—
5/1/2024ISM Prices Paid——55.8—
5/1/2024ISM New Orders——51.4—
5/1/2024ISM Employment——47.4—
5/1/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound)5.50%—5.50%—
5/1/2024FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound)5.25%—5.25%—
5/1/2024Interest on Reserve Balances Rate——5.40%—
5/1/2024Wards Total Vehicle Sales15.75m—15.49m—

Jason Haley

Chief Investment Officer

LinkedIn

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