Treasury yields are 4-8 basis points lower this morning, with front-end yields moving the most.
Overnight trading volumes were light, and the move appears to be driven by buying demand from real money accounts. Initial jobless claims matched expectations, rising 6,000 to a relatively tame 222,000 last week. Durable goods orders rose 9.2% in March, but excluding transportation, orders were flat versus the prior month. The typically volatile nondefense aircraft orders surged 139%, but core orders rose just 0.1%, as expected. The latter is used as a general proxy for business capital expenditures. Three Fed leaders are making public appearances today, including Governor Chris Waller, who has been more dovish in recent comments and is also mentioned as a potential replacement for Powell when his term expires next year.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/24/2025 | Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index | 0.12 | -0.03 | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| 4/24/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 2.00% | 9.20% | 1.00% | 0.90% |
| 4/24/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.30% | 0.00% | 0.70% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | 0.10% | -0.20% | -0.30% |
| 4/24/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.80% | 0.70% |
| 4/24/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 222k | 222k | 215k | 216k |
| 4/24/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 220k | 221k | 221k |
| 4/24/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1869k | 1841k | 1885k | 1878k |
| 4/24/2025 | Existing Home Sales | 4.13m | — | 4.26m | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Existing Home Sales MoM | -3.10% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 4/24/2025 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -6 | — | -2 | — |
| 4/25/2025 | Bloomberg April United States Economic Survey | ||||
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 50.6 | — | 50.8 | — |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 56.5 | — |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 47.2 | — |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 6.80% | — | 6.70% | — |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 4.40% | — | 4.40% | — |
| 4/25/2025 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 0 | — |
| 4/28/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -16.3 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$145.4b | — | -$147.9b | -$147.8b |
| 4/29/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | 0.46% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 4.67% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 4.08% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 7568k | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.50% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3195k | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1790k | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 87 | — | 92.9 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 134.5 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 65.2 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -11.3 | — |
| 4/30/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -12.70% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | ADP Employment Change | — | — | 155k | — |
| 4/30/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 0.40% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Consumption | — | — | 4.00% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | GDP Price Index | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Employment Cost Index | 1.00% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | — | — | 47.6 | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Real Personal Spending | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -7.20% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 204.80% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 222k | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 220k | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1841k | — |
| 5/1/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 50.7 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 47.9 | — | 49 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 69.4 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 45.2 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Employment | — | — | 44.7 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.50m | — | 17.77m | — |
