The first estimate of Q1 GDP came in below expectations, but financial markets are initially focusing much more on the inflation figures within the GDP report, which were well above expectations.
GDP growth was 1.6% q/q (annualized) in the first quarter vs. expectations of a 2.5% increase. Contributing to the downside miss were personal consumption (2.5% vs. 3.0% expected), a wider trade deficit, and the change in business inventories. The latter two shaved a combined 1.21 percentage points off the topline growth rate. However, market participants appear hyper-focused on the core PCE component within the report, which rose 3.7% q/q versus expectations of 3.4% and the prior quarter’s 2.0% q/q rate. Moreover, the year-over-year core PCE rate was 2.87%, leading some to speculate that tomorrow’s March PCE report may exceed 0.4% m/m assuming no revisions to the January and February data.
While missing expectations, the overall growth data was not terrible, particularly when considering the negative impact of trade and inventories during the quarter. This shifts greater focus for most to the inflation data and what it may mean for Fed policy going forward. Treasury yields are currently up 6-9 basis points (as of 8:55am ET), and equity futures are down more than 1%.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/25/2024 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.50% | 1.60% | 3.40% | — |
| 4/25/2024 | Personal Consumption | 3.00% | 2.50% | 3.30% | — |
| 4/25/2024 | GDP Price Index | 3.00% | 3.10% | 1.60% | — |
| 4/25/2024 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 3.40% | 3.70% | 2.00% | — |
| 4/25/2024 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$91.0b | -$91.8b | -$91.8b | -$90.3b |
| 4/25/2024 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.50% | 0.30% | 0.50% | — |
| 4/25/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.30% | -0.40% | 0.50% | 0.40% |
| 4/25/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 215k | 207k | 212k | — |
| 4/25/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1814k | 1781k | 1812k | 1796k |
| 4/25/2024 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 0.40% | — | 1.60% | — |
| 4/25/2024 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -3.00% | — | -2.20% | — |
| 4/25/2024 | Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity | -5 | — | -7 | — |
| 4/26/2024 | Personal Income | 0.50% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | Personal Spending | 0.60% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | PCE Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | PCE Deflator YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | PCE Core Deflator MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | PCE Core Deflator YoY | 2.70% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 77.9 | — | 77.9 | — |
| 4/26/2024 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 79.3 | — |
| 4/26/2024 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 77 | — |
| 4/26/2024 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 3.10% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 3.00% | — | 3.00% | — |
| 4/26/2024 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 7 | — |
| 4/29/2024 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | — | — | -14.4 | — |
| 4/30/2024 | Employment Cost Index | 1.00% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/30/2024 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | -0.10% | — |
| 4/30/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | 0.14% | — |
| 4/30/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 6.03% | — |
| 4/30/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 6.59% | — |
| 4/30/2024 | MNI Chicago PMI | 45.3 | — | 41.4 | — |
| 4/30/2024 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 104.1 | — | 104.7 | — |
| 4/30/2024 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 151 | — |
| 4/30/2024 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 73.8 | — |
| 4/30/2024 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -5.5 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.70% | — |
| 5/1/2024 | ADP Employment Change | 180k | — | 184k | — |
| 5/1/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 49.9 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 5/1/2024 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 8756k | — |
| 5/1/2024 | ISM Manufacturing | 50.1 | — | 50.3 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 55.8 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 51.4 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | ISM Employment | — | — | 47.4 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 5.50% | — | 5.50% | — |
| 5/1/2024 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 5.25% | — | 5.25% | — |
| 5/1/2024 | Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | — | — | 5.40% | — |
| 5/1/2024 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.75m | — | 15.49m | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Trade Balance | -$67.3b | — | -$68.9b | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Nonfarm Productivity | 1.50% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Unit Labor Costs | 2.00% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 207k | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1781k | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Factory Orders | 2.00% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.20% | — |
