The Treasury curve is bull flattening this morning, with long-end yields 5 basis points lower.
There was a back-and-forth yesterday on China/US trade relations, with the White House saying negotiations are underway while Chinese officials denied there have been any discussions. Today, China is reportedly considering suspending 125% tariffs on certain imports, such as medical equipment and industrial chemicals, as costs weigh on some industries. Separately, South Korean officials suggest a trade deal could be reached with the US in July. Later this morning, the final iteration of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for April will be released, which is expected to show modest downward revisions to sharp declines in sentiment and expectations reported earlier this month.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 50.5 | — | 50.8 | — |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | 56 | — | 56.5 | — |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | 46.3 | — | 47.2 | — |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | 6.80% | — | 6.70% | — |
| 4/25/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | 4.40% | — | 4.40% | — |
| 4/25/2025 | Kansas City Fed Services Activity | — | — | 0 | — |
| 4/28/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -14.2 | — | -16.3 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$146.0b | — | -$147.9b | -$147.8b |
| 4/29/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | — | — | 0.46% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | — | — | 4.67% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 4.08% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | — | — | 7568k | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.50% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3195k | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1790k | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 87 | — | 92.9 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 134.5 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 65.2 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -11.3 | — |
| 4/30/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -12.70% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 128k | — | 155k | — |
| 4/30/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 0.20% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Consumption | — | — | 4.00% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | GDP Price Index | — | — | 2.30% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | — | — | 2.60% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Employment Cost Index | 0.90% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | 45.5 | — | 47.6 | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.60% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Real Personal Spending | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -7.20% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 204.80% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 222k | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 220k | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1841k | — |
| 5/1/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | — | — | 50.7 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 48.1 | — | 49 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | — | — | 69.4 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 45.2 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Employment | — | — | 44.7 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.80m | — | 17.77m | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 130k | — | 228k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 118k | — | 209k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -10k | — | 1k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | 152k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -48k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | — | — | 62.50% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.90% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.90% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | 34.2 | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Factory Orders | 4.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 9.20% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.30% | — |
