The March PCE inflation report was largely in line with expectations, essentially a “win” for battered financial markets. As we noted in yesterday’s commentary, the quarterly PCE data within the Q1 GDP report fueled worries that the core PCE reading for March might have been close to 0.48% m/m, but the data released today showed a 0.32% m/m increase in core PCE. Granted, that’s still too high for the Fed’s liking, but not as high as the market worried it may be. On a year-over-year basis, core PCE held steady at 2.8%. Personal income matched expectations, rising 0.5% in March, and personal spending adjusted for inflation exceeded expectations at 0.5% m/m (0.3% expected). Treasury yields are 2-4 bps lower in the immediate reaction to the data.
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
Date Event Surv(M) Actual Prior Revised 04/26/24 Personal Income 0.50% 0.50% 0.30% — 04/26/24 Personal Spending 0.60% 0.80% 0.80% — 04/26/24 Real Personal Spending 0.30% 0.50% 0.40% 0.50% 04/26/24 PCE Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% — 04/26/24 PCE Deflator YoY 2.60% 2.70% 2.50% — 04/26/24 PCE Core Deflator MoM 0.30% 0.30% 0.30% — 04/26/24 PCE Core Deflator YoY 2.70% 2.80% 2.80% — 04/26/24 U. of Mich. Sentiment 77.9 — 77.9 — 04/26/24 U. of Mich. Current Conditions 79.1 — 79.3 — 04/26/24 U. of Mich. Expectations 77.1 — 77 — 04/26/24 U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation 3.10% — 3.10% — 04/26/24 U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation 3.00% — 3.00% — 04/26/24 Kansas City Fed Services Activity — — 7 —
Jason Haley Chief Investment Officer
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