Both Treasury yields and US equity futures are modestly lower to start the week.
The primary focus remains on tariffs and assessing their economic impact in the coming months, and this week’s economic calendar includes the first estimate of Q1 GDP (Wednesday) and the April jobs report (Friday). A Wall Street Journal article released last night highlights recent talk from U.S. corporations regarding cost and investment cutbacks amid tariff uncertainty as companies prepare for higher input costs. It may be too early, but the April jobs report could shed light on whether these cutbacks include reduced hiring at this point via the nonfarm payrolls figure. Fixed income markets, particularly credit-risky sectors, traded much better last week after the White House seemed to back down from more extreme tariff positions and threats to Fed independence. Many new issues were well subscribed, and spreads tightened across the ratings scale.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/28/2025 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -14.1 | — | -16.3 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$143.0b | — | -$147.9b | -$147.8b |
| 4/29/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.70% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.35% | — | 0.46% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 4.70% | — | 4.67% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 4.08% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7500k | — | 7568k | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.50% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 3195k | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1790k | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 87.6 | — | 92.9 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 134.5 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 65.2 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -11.3 | — |
| 4/30/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -12.70% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 124k | — | 155k | — |
| 4/30/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 0.40% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Consumption | 1.20% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | GDP Price Index | 3.00% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 3.00% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Employment Cost Index | 0.90% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | 46 | — | 47.6 | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.60% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Real Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.00% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | — | — | -7.20% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 204.80% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 225k | — | 222k | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 220k | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1860k | — | 1841k | — |
| 5/1/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 50.7 | — | 50.7 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 48 | — | 49 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | 73 | — | 69.4 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 45.2 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Employment | — | — | 44.7 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.05m | — | 17.77m | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 130k | — | 228k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 120k | — | 209k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -5k | — | 1k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | 152k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -48k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.50% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.90% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.90% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | 34.2 | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Factory Orders | 4.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 9.20% | — | 9.20% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/5/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 51.4 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 51.2 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services Index | 50.2 | — | 50.8 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 60.9 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 50.4 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 46.2 | — |
