Treasury yields are 2-3 basis points lower to start what should be a busy week.
The most notable events are the FOMC meeting (Wednesday) and April jobs report (Friday), but there are other releases that could impact markets. The Treasury Department will release a fresh quarterly refunding announcement, which will provide the market with updated supply guidance for Treasuries. In addition to Friday’s jobs report, March job openings will be released Wednesday, and on the inflation front, the Employment Cost Index for Q1 will be released tomorrow. Wednesday’s FOMC meeting will not include updated participant forecasts, and with no material changes expected in the official statement, the greater focus will be on Powell’s press conference.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Surv(M) | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 04/29/24 | Dallas Fed Manf. Activity | -11.3 | — | -14.4 | — |
| 04/30/24 | Employment Cost Index | 1.00% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 04/30/24 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 04/30/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.10% | — | 0.14% | — |
| 04/30/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 6.03% | — |
| 04/30/24 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.70% | — | 6.59% | — |
| 04/30/24 | MNI Chicago PMI | 45 | — | 41.4 | — |
| 04/30/24 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 104 | — | 104.7 | — |
| 04/30/24 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 151 | — |
| 04/30/24 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 73.8 | — |
| 04/30/24 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -5.5 | — |
| 05/01/24 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.70% | — |
| 05/01/24 | ADP Employment Change | 185k | — | 184k | — |
| 05/01/24 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49.9 | — | 49.9 | — |
| 05/01/24 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 05/01/24 | JOLTS Job Openings | 8665k | — | 8756k | — |
| 05/01/24 | ISM Manufacturing | 50.1 | — | 50.3 | — |
| 05/01/24 | ISM Prices Paid | 55.2 | — | 55.8 | — |
| 05/01/24 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 51.4 | — |
| 05/01/24 | ISM Employment | — | — | 47.4 | — |
| 05/01/24 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 5.50% | — | 5.50% | — |
| 05/01/24 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 5.25% | — | 5.25% | — |
| 05/01/24 | Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 5.40% | — | 5.40% | — |
| 05/01/24 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.70m | — | 15.49m | — |
| 05/02/24 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 05/02/24 | Trade Balance | -$69.5b | — | -$68.9b | — |
| 05/02/24 | Nonfarm Productivity | 0.80% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 05/02/24 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.20% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 05/02/24 | Initial Jobless Claims | 212k | — | 207k | — |
| 05/02/24 | Continuing Claims | 1795k | — | 1781k | — |
| 05/02/24 | Factory Orders | 1.50% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 05/02/24 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 05/02/24 | Durable Goods Orders | 2.60% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 05/02/24 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 05/02/24 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 05/02/24 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 05/03/24 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 22k | — |
| 05/03/24 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 250k | — | 303k | — |
| 05/03/24 | Change in Private Payrolls | 200k | — | 232k | — |
| 05/03/24 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 5k | — | 0k | — |
| 05/03/24 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 05/03/24 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 05/03/24 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.00% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 05/03/24 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | — | 34.4 | — |
| 05/03/24 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.70% | — | 62.70% | — |
| 05/03/24 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.30% | — |
| 05/03/24 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 50.9 | — | 50.9 | — |
| 05/03/24 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 50.9 | — |
| 05/03/24 | ISM Services Index | 52 | — | 51.4 | — |
| 05/03/24 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 53.4 | — |
| 05/03/24 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 48.5 | — |
| 05/03/24 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 54.4 | — |
