Treasury yields are rising slightly and steepening this morning following a quiet overnight session with Japan on holiday.
There are multiple economic releases today, including the March JOLTS report (labor market), home prices, and consumer confidence. Yesterday, the Dallas Fed released its manufacturing activity survey, and it was much worse than expected, falling to the lowest level since May 2020. The report included a special survey on the expected impact of tariffs. The majority of respondents said they would pass higher costs onto customers, but 38% said it’s becoming harder or much harder to do so.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/29/2025 | Advance Goods Trade Balance | -$145.0b | -$162.0b | -$147.9b | -$147.8b |
| 4/29/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.60% | 0.50% | 0.30% | 0.50% |
| 4/29/2025 | Retail Inventories MoM | 0.40% | -0.10% | 0.10% | -0.10% |
| 4/29/2025 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.40% | — | 0.46% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 4.70% | — | 4.67% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | — | — | 4.08% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings | 7500k | — | 7568k | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | 4.50% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Level | 3185k | — | 3195k | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | 1807k | — | 1790k | — |
| 4/29/2025 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 88 | — | 92.9 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 134.5 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 65.2 | — |
| 4/29/2025 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -11.3 | — |
| 4/30/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -12.70% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 115k | — | 155k | — |
| 4/30/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 0.30% | — | 2.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Consumption | 1.20% | — | 4.00% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | GDP Price Index | 3.10% | — | 2.30% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 3.20% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Employment Cost Index | 0.90% | — | 0.90% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | 45.9 | — | 47.6 | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.60% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Real Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.00% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -5.60% | — | -7.20% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 204.80% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 224k | — | 222k | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 220.25k | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1865k | — | 1841k | — |
| 5/1/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 50.6 | — | 50.7 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 48 | — | 49 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | 72.5 | — | 69.4 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 45.2 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Employment | — | — | 44.7 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.15m | — | 17.77m | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 135k | — | 228k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 120k | — | 209k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -5k | — | 1k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | 152k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -48k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.50% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.90% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.90% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | 34.2 | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Factory Orders | 4.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 9.20% | — | 9.20% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/5/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 51.4 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 51.2 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services Index | 50.2 | — | 50.8 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 60.9 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 50.4 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 46.2 | — |
| 5/6/2025 | Trade Balance | -$119.0b | — | -$122.7b | — |
