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Author Kirby Hart

Published

Estimated

Treasury yields are up 4-5 bps across the curve following the stronger-than-expected March Payroll report.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 178k compared to the expected 65k and the previous month’s negative number. The unemployment rate decreased and now sits at 4.26% unrounded. A stronger labor market leads traders to reduce their expectations of a rate cut in 2026. Currently, fed funds futures show only 11% chance of a 25-bps cut in 2026. The U.S. stock market is closed today for Good Friday, but it did have its first positive week since the start of the war in Iran. The bond market will close early at Noon ET today.

Kirby Hart
Director

DateEventSurveyActualPrior
4/3/2026Change in Nonfarm Payrolls65k178k-92k
4/3/2026Two-Month Payroll Net Revision     —-7k-69k
4/3/2026Change in Private Payrolls78k186k-86k
4/3/2026Change in Manufact. Payrolls-5k15k-12k
4/3/2026Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg     —68k6k
4/3/2026Average Hourly Earnings MoM0.30%0.20%0.40%
4/3/2026Average Hourly Earnings YoY3.70%3.50%3.80%
4/3/2026Average Weekly Hours All Employees34.334.234.3
4/3/2026Unemployment Rate4.40%4.30%4.40%
4/3/2026Labor Force Participation Rate62.00%61.90%62.00%
4/3/2026Underemployment Rate7.90%8.00%7.90%
4/3/2026S&P Global US Services PMI51.1     —51.1
4/3/2026S&P Global US Composite PMI51.4     —51.4
4/6/2026ISM Reschedules March Services PMI to April 6   
4/6/2026ISM Services Index54.9     —56.1
4/6/2026ISM Services Prices Paid66     —63
4/6/2026ISM Services New Orders57.5     —58.6
4/6/2026ISM Services Employment     —     —51.8
4/7/2026ADP Weekly Employment Change     —     —10.000k
4/7/2026Durable Goods Orders-1.00%     —0.00%
4/7/2026Durables Ex Transportation0.50%     —0.40%
4/7/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air0.80%     —     —
4/7/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air0.30%     —-0.10%
4/7/2026NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations     —     —3.00%
4/7/2026Consumer Credit$11.250b     —$8.050b
4/8/2026MBA Mortgage Applications     —     —-10.40%
4/8/2026FOMC Meeting Minutes     —     —     —
4/9/2026Personal Income0.30%     —0.40%
4/9/2026Personal Spending0.50%     —0.40%
4/9/2026Real Personal Spending0.20%     —0.10%
4/9/2026PCE Price Index MoM0.40%     —0.30%
4/9/2026PCE Price Index YoY2.80%     —2.80%
4/9/2026Core PCE Price Index MoM0.40%     —0.40%
4/9/2026Core PCE Price Index YoY2.90%     —3.10%
4/9/2026Initial Jobless Claims210k     —202k
4/9/2026Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg     —     —207.75k
4/9/2026Continuing Claims     —     —1841k
4/9/2026GDP Annualized QoQ0.70%     —0.70%
4/9/2026Personal Consumption2.00%     —2.00%
4/9/2026GDP Price Index3.80%     —3.80%
4/9/2026Core PCE Price Index QoQ     —     —2.70%
4/9/2026Wholesale Inventories MoM     —     —-0.50%
4/9/2026Wholesale Trade Sales MoM     —     —0.50%
4/10/2026CPI MoM1.00%     —0.30%
4/10/2026Core CPI MoM0.30%     —0.20%
4/10/2026CPI YoY3.40%     —2.40%
4/10/2026Core CPI YoY2.70%     —2.50%
4/10/2026CPI Index NSA330.5     —326.785
4/10/2026Core CPI Index SA334.46     —333.512
4/10/2026Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY     —     —1.40%
4/10/2026Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY     —     —1.70%
4/10/2026Factory Orders-0.20%     —0.10%
4/10/2026U. of Mich. Sentiment52     —53.3
4/10/2026Factory Orders Ex Trans     —     —0.40%
4/10/2026U. of Mich. Current Conditions     —     —55.8
4/10/2026U. of Mich. Expectations     —     —51.7
4/10/2026U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation     —     —3.80%
4/10/2026U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation     —     —3.20%
4/10/2026Durable Goods Orders     —     —0.00%
4/10/2026Durables Ex Transportation     —     —0.40%
4/10/2026Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air     —     —0.10%
4/10/2026Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air     —     —-0.10%
4/10/2026Federal Budget Balance     —     —-$160.5b

Kirby Hart

Director, Investment Management Group

LinkedIn

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