Treasury yields are 4-6 basis points higher after the Fed’s preferred wage inflation gauge surprised to the upside.
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) rose 1.2% in Q1, up from 0.9% the prior quarter and expectations for a 1% increase. The ECI provides a more comprehensive read on labor costs because it also includes bonuses and other benefits, and this was the highest quarterly reading since Q1 of last year. On a year-over-year basis, ECI held steady at 4.2% in Q1, presenting another signal of stubborn/sticky inflation pressures for Fed leaders. In overseas news, the Eurozone was able to climb out of a brief recession in the second half of 2023, with aggregate GDP rising 0.3% in Q1 (0.1% expected).
A Wall Street Journal article highlights the ongoing troubles in the U.S. office property market. According to data from MSCI, more than $38 billion of U.S. office buildings are under threat of default, foreclosure, or other forms of distress, the highest amount since Q4 2012 as property owners contend with weak demand and higher interest rates. The U.S. office vacancy rate is currently at a record 13.8% according to CoStar Group, up from 9.4% at the end of 2019.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/30/2024 | Employment Cost Index | 1.00% | 1.20% | 0.90% | — |
| 4/30/2024 | FHFA House Price Index MoM | 0.20% | 1.20% | -0.10% | — |
| 4/30/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA | 0.10% | 0.61% | 0.14% | 0.17% |
| 4/30/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS US HPI YoY NSA | 6.38% | 6.38% | 6.03% | 5.99% |
| 4/30/2024 | S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City YoY NSA | 6.70% | 7.29% | 6.59% | 6.58% |
| 4/30/2024 | MNI Chicago PMI | 45 | — | 41.4 | — |
| 4/30/2024 | Conf. Board Consumer Confidence | 104 | — | 104.7 | — |
| 4/30/2024 | Conf. Board Present Situation | — | — | 151 | — |
| 4/30/2024 | Conf. Board Expectations | — | — | 73.8 | — |
| 4/30/2024 | Dallas Fed Services Activity | — | — | -5.5 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -2.70% | — |
| 5/1/2024 | ADP Employment Change | 180k | — | 184k | — |
| 5/1/2024 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 49.9 | — | 49.9 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.30% | — |
| 5/1/2024 | JOLTS Job Openings | 8690k | — | 8756k | — |
| 5/1/2024 | ISM Manufacturing | 50 | — | 50.3 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | ISM Prices Paid | 55.4 | — | 55.8 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | ISM New Orders | 51 | — | 51.4 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | ISM Employment | 48.2 | — | 47.4 | — |
| 5/1/2024 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 5.50% | — | 5.50% | — |
| 5/1/2024 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 5.25% | — | 5.25% | — |
| 5/1/2024 | Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | 5.40% | — | 5.40% | — |
| 5/1/2024 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 15.70m | — | 15.49m | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Nonfarm Productivity | 0.70% | — | 3.30% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Trade Balance | -$69.7b | — | -$68.9b | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Unit Labor Costs | 3.60% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 211k | — | 207k | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1795k | — | 1781k | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Factory Orders | 1.60% | — | 1.40% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Durable Goods Orders | 2.60% | — | 2.60% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.20% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/2/2024 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | 22k | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 240k | — | 303k | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Change in Private Payrolls | 190k | — | 232k | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 5k | — | 0k | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.00% | — | 4.10% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.4 | — | 34.4 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.70% | — | 62.70% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.30% | — |
| 5/3/2024 | S&P Global US Services PMI | 50.9 | — | 50.9 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | 50.9 | — | 50.9 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | ISM Services Index | 52 | — | 51.4 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 53.4 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 48.5 | — |
| 5/3/2024 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 54.4 | — |
| 5/6/2024 | Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices | ||||
| 5/7/2024 | Consumer Credit | $15.500b | — | $14.125b | — |
