The first estimate of Q1 GDP showed the US economy contracting 0.3% q/q (annualized), slightly more than the -0.2% figure expected.
There is a lot of noise in the Q1 data related to trade and inventories. A flood of imports ahead of tariffs shed 4.83% from topline growth, while the increase in inventories offset nearly half of that decline (+2.25%). Personal consumption was stronger than expected, rising 1.8% vs. 1.2%, and real final demand to private domestic purchasers, which excludes trade and inventories (i.e., “core” GDP), rose a solid 3% in Q1 following a 2.9% increase in the prior quarter. Inflation readings were hotter than expected, with the GDP price index rising 3.7% vs. 3.1%.
The negative impact of imports is expected to reverse in the current quarter, but the question mark will be the personal consumption figure, given recent sentiment surveys (will actions follow sentiment?). In a separate release, the Employment Cost Index (ECI), a favored measure of wage inflation by the Fed, rose 0.9% in Q1, as expected and just slightly above the 10-year average (0.8%).
Treasury yields were lower leading up to the GDP release on whispers of a more negative topline GDP rate and have since reversed course. Long-end yields are now 3-5 basis points higher on the day, and US equity futures have turned more negative (S&P 500 -1.05% as of 8:49 am ET).
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/30/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | -4.20% | -12.70% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | ADP Employment Change | 115k | 62k | 155k | 147k |
| 4/30/2025 | GDP Annualized QoQ | -0.20% | -0.30% | 2.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Consumption | 1.20% | 1.80% | 4.00% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | GDP Price Index | 3.10% | 3.70% | 2.30% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 3.10% | 3.50% | 2.60% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Employment Cost Index | 0.90% | 0.90% | 0.90% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | MNI Chicago PMI | 45.9 | — | 47.6 | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Income | 0.40% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Personal Spending | 0.60% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Real Personal Spending | 0.50% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.00% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | PCE Price Index YoY | 2.20% | — | 2.50% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales MoM | 1.00% | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/30/2025 | Pending Home Sales NSA YoY | -5.70% | — | -7.20% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | 204.80% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | 224k | — | 222k | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 220.25k | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Continuing Claims | 1865k | — | 1841k | — |
| 5/1/2025 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 50.5 | — | 50.7 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Manufacturing | 48 | — | 49 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Prices Paid | 73 | — | 69.4 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM New Orders | — | — | 45.2 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | ISM Employment | 45 | — | 44.7 | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Construction Spending MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.70% | — |
| 5/1/2025 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 17.15m | — | 17.77m | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 135k | — | 228k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 122k | — | 209k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | -5k | — | 1k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Nonfarm Payrolls 3-Mo Avg Chg | — | — | 152k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | -48k | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.20% | — | 4.20% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.50% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.90% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.90% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | — | 34.2 | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Factory Orders | 4.50% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Durable Goods Orders | 9.20% | — | 9.20% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Durables Ex Transportation | 0.00% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | 0.10% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 5/2/2025 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 5/5/2025 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 51.4 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 51.2 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services Index | 50.4 | — | 50.8 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services Prices Paid | — | — | 60.9 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services New Orders | — | — | 50.4 | — |
| 5/5/2025 | ISM Services Employment | — | — | 46.2 | — |
| 5/6/2025 | Trade Balance | -$119.5b | — | -$122.7b | — |
| 5/7/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -4.20% | — |
| 5/7/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) | 4.50% | — | 4.50% | — |
| 5/7/2025 | FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) | 4.25% | — | 4.25% | — |
| 5/7/2025 | Fed Interest on Reserve Balances Rate | — | — | 4.40% | — |
| 5/7/2025 | Consumer Credit | $10.000b | — | -$0.810b | — |
