After yesterday’s significant bear flattening move, Treasury yields are lower this morning by 3-4 bps across the curve.
This comes after April 25th jobless claims came in 23k lower than expected (212k vs 189k actual). April 25th jobless claims level is the lowest weekly level in 50 years, showing a very resilient labor market. Even more economic data points were released today, with Q1 GDP coming in slightly below expectations, at 2.0% vs 2.3%. A positive seen in the data: consumer spending was higher than expected at 1.6%, which accounts for 2/3s of economic activity. On the equity side, futures point to a positive opening after the 4 of the magnificent 7 companies reported earnings yesterday evening. All 4 beat earnings expectations, but META and Microsoft are trading lower on further based on increased capital expenditures guidance. META is in the market for a new 6-part $25 billion corporate debt offering following earnings (5yr, 7yr, 10yr, 20yr, 30yr, 40yr).
Kirby Hart
Director
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/30/2026 | Personal Income | 0.30% | 0.60% | -0.10% | 0.00% |
| 4/30/2026 | Personal Spending | 0.90% | 0.90% | 0.50% | 0.60% |
| 4/30/2026 | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.70% | 0.70% | 0.40% | — |
| 4/30/2026 | Real Personal Spending | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.10% | 0.30% |
| 4/30/2026 | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.50% | 3.50% | 2.80% | — |
| 4/30/2026 | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.40% | — |
| 4/30/2026 | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.20% | 3.20% | 3.00% | — |
| 4/30/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | 212k | 189k | 214k | 215k |
| 4/30/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | 207.50k | 210.75k | 211.00k |
| 4/30/2026 | Continuing Claims | 1815k | 1785k | 1821k | 1808k |
| 4/30/2026 | Employment Cost Index | 0.80% | 0.90% | 0.70% | — |
| 4/30/2026 | GDP Annualized QoQ | 2.30% | 2.00% | 0.50% | — |
| 4/30/2026 | Personal Consumption | 1.40% | 1.60% | 1.90% | — |
| 4/30/2026 | GDP Price Index | 3.90% | 3.60% | 3.70% | — |
| 4/30/2026 | Core PCE Price Index QoQ | 4.10% | 4.30% | 2.70% | — |
| 4/30/2026 | MNI Chicago PMI | 54.9 | — | 52.8 | — |
| 4/30/2026 | Leading Index | -0.20% | — | — | — |
| 4/30/2026 | Conference Board Releases February and March LEI Data | ||||
| 5/1/2026 | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI | 54 | — | 54 | — |
| 5/1/2026 | ISM Manufacturing | 53.2 | — | 52.7 | — |
| 5/1/2026 | ISM Prices Paid | 80 | — | 78.3 | — |
| 5/1/2026 | ISM New Orders | 54.7 | — | 53.5 | — |
| 5/1/2026 | ISM Employment | 49 | — | 48.7 | — |
| 5/01/2026 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | 16.00m | — | 16.34m | — |
| 5/4/2026 | Factory Orders | -0.10% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 5/4/2026 | Factory Orders Ex Trans | — | — | 1.20% | — |
| 5/4/2026 | Durable Goods Orders | — | — | 0.80% | — |
| 5/4/2026 | Durables Ex Transportation | — | — | 0.90% | — |
| 5/4/2026 | Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 5/4/2026 | Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air | — | — | 1.20% | — |
| 5/5/2026 | Trade Balance | -$59.7b | — | -$57.3b | — |
| 5/5/2026 | Imports MoM | — | — | 4.30% | — |
| 5/5/2026 | Exports MoM | — | — | 4.20% | — |
| 5/5/2026 | S&P Global US Services PMI | — | — | 51.3 | — |
| 5/5/2026 | S&P Global US Composite PMI | — | — | 52 | — |
| 5/5/2026 | Census Releases February and March New Home Sales | ||||
| 5/5/2026 | ISM Services Index | 53.9 | — | 54 | — |
| 5/5/2026 | ISM Services Prices Paid | 73 | — | 70.7 | — |
| 5/5/2026 | New Home Sales | 668k | — | — | — |
| 5/5/2026 | ISM Services New Orders | 58 | — | 60.6 | — |
| 5/5/2026 | New Home Sales MoM | — | — | ###### | — |
| 5/5/2026 | ISM Services Employment | 50 | — | 45.2 | — |
| 5/5/2026 | JOLTS Job Openings | 6700k | — | 6882k | — |
| 5/5/2026 | JOLTS Job Openings Rate | — | — | 4.20% | — |
| 5/5/2026 | JOLTS Quits Level | — | — | 2974k | — |
| 5/5/2026 | JOLTS Quits Rate | — | — | 1.90% | — |
| 5/5/2026 | JOLTS Layoffs Level | — | — | 1721k | — |
| 5/5/2026 | JOLTS Layoffs Rate | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 5/05/2026 | Building Permits | — | — | 1372k | — |
| 5/05/2026 | Building Permits MoM | — | — | ###### | — |
| 5/6/2026 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.60% | — |
| 5/6/2026 | ADP Employment Change | — | — | 62k | — |
| 5/6/2026 | US Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement | ||||
| 5/7/2026 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | — | ###### | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Challenger Job Cuts Total | — | — | 60620 | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Nonfarm Productivity | — | — | 1.80% | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Unit Labor Costs | — | — | 4.40% | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 189k | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Initial Claims 4-Wk Moving Avg | — | — | 207.50k | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1785k | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Census Releases February and March Construction Spending | ||||
| 5/7/2026 | Construction Spending MoM | — | — | -0.30% | — |
| 5/7/2026 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.42% | — |
| 5/7/2026 | Consumer Credit | $12.500b | — | $9.484b | — |
