It was a relatively quiet overnight session with no major date releases, and Treasury yields are slightly higher to start the day.
On the week, yields are up 6-16 basis points (bps) across the curve, and the curve is essentially 10 bps steeper (2yr/10yr spread). Despite rate volatility bouncing higher this week, fixed income spreads are generally tighter, albeit modestly. On the data front, initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose to 221,000 last week, still a low number on a historical basis. The March employment report will be released in the morning, and current Bloomberg consensus is for 213,000 jobs added to nonfarm payrolls and a slight downtick in the unemployment rate to 3.8%.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/4/2024 | Challenger Job Cuts YoY | — | 0.70% | 8.80% | — |
| 4/4/2024 | Trade Balance | -$67.6b | -$68.9b | -$67.4b | -$67.6b |
| 4/4/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | 214k | 221k | 210k | 212k |
| 4/4/2024 | Continuing Claims | 1811k | 1791k | 1819k | 1810k |
| 4/5/2024 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | — | — | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 213k | — | 275k | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Change in Private Payrolls | 170k | — | 223k | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 0k | — | -4k | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | — | 3.90% | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.10% | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.10% | — | 4.30% | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | — | 34.3 | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.50% | — | 62.50% | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Underemployment Rate | — | — | 7.30% | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Consumer Credit | $15.700b | — | $19.495b | — |
| 4/8/2024 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.04% | — |
| 4/9/2024 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 90 | — | 89.4 | — |
| 4/10/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -0.60% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | CPI MoM | 0.40% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | CPI YoY | 3.50% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.70% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | CPI Index NSA | 311.852 | — | 310.326 | — |
| 4/10/2024 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 315.565 | — |
| 4/10/2024 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | -1.70% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 4/10/2024 | Monthly Budget Statement | — | — | -$296.3b | — |
| 4/11/2024 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 4/11/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/11/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/11/2024 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 1.60% | — |
| 4/11/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/11/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 4/11/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 221k | — |
| 4/11/2024 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1791k | — |
