The carnage continues in global financial markets.
U.S. equity futures are down another 3%, and Treasury yields are 12-18 basis points lower. Not surprisingly, China announced that they will be matching the 34% tariff announced yesterday, and other countries may follow. Fed funds futures are now pricing nearly 125 bps of rate cuts in 2025 on the premise that the negative growth impact of yesterday’s announcement will overwhelm the near-term inflationary consequences. In other words, pricing for a recession.
In what would have been more impactful news two days ago, we received a solid March jobs report this morning. Nonfarm payrolls added 228,000 jobs last month, 88,000 more than expected. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.2% due mainly to rounding (4.152% vs. 4.139% in the prior month), and the slight increase was attributed to more people entering the labor force (+232,000), while household employment rose by 201,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% m/m, as expected. The rally in Treasuries has eased somewhat following the jobs report (yields down 9-12 bps), but equity futures are still down approximately 3%. Fed Chair Powell will be speaking later this morning at a previously scheduled event.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/4/2025 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 140k | 228k | 151k | 117k |
| 4/4/2025 | Change in Private Payrolls | 135k | 209k | 140k | 116k |
| 4/4/2025 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 0k | 1k | 10k | 8k |
| 4/4/2025 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | -48k | -2k | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Unemployment Rate | 4.10% | 4.20% | 4.10% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.40% | 62.50% | 62.40% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Underemployment Rate | — | 7.90% | 8.00% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.20% |
| 4/4/2025 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.00% | 3.80% | 4.00% | — |
| 4/4/2025 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.2 | 34.2 | 34.1 | 34.2 |
| 4/7/2025 | Consumer Credit | $15.000b | — | $18.084b | — |
| 4/8/2025 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | — | — | 100.7 | — |
| 4/9/2025 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -1.60% | — |
| 4/9/2025 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | -1.30% | — |
| 4/9/2025 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/9/2025 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI MoM | 0.10% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI YoY | 2.60% | — | 2.80% | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.00% | — | 3.10% | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI Index NSA | — | — | 319.082 | — |
| 4/10/2025 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 325.475 | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.20% | 1.10% |
| 4/10/2025 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.60% | 0.80% |
| 4/10/2025 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 219k | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1903k | — |
| 4/10/2025 | Federal Budget Balance | — | — | -$236.6b | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.00% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | -0.10% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 3.20% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 3.40% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 3.30% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 55 | — | 57 | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 63.8 | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 52.6 | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 5.00% | — |
| 4/11/2025 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 4.10% | — |
