It’s another strong report for the U.S. labor market.
Nonfarm payrolls added 303,000 jobs in March versus 214,000 expected. In the household survey, the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8% (as expected), supported by a 498,000 increase in household employment. Wage growth ticked up to 0.3% m/m, and the average workweek unexpectedly increased to 34.4 hours (34.3 previously). As one would expect, Treasuries are selling off but in an orderly manner so far with yields 4-6 basis points higher. This report shouldn’t be labeled a major surprise. If anything, it shows no signs of material weakening in the current employment situation and, as such, pushes on the margin of later/fewer rate cuts in 2024. The next major data release will be the March CPI report next Wednesday.
Jason Haley
Chief Investment Officer
| Date | Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised |
| 4/5/2024 | Two-Month Payroll Net Revision | — | 22k | — | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Change in Nonfarm Payrolls | 214k | 303k | 275k | 270k |
| 4/5/2024 | Change in Private Payrolls | 170k | 232k | 223k | 207k |
| 4/5/2024 | Change in Manufact. Payrolls | 3k | 0k | -4k | -10k |
| 4/5/2024 | Unemployment Rate | 3.80% | 3.80% | 3.90% | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.20% |
| 4/5/2024 | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 4.10% | 4.10% | 4.30% | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Average Weekly Hours All Employees | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.3 | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Labor Force Participation Rate | 62.60% | 62.70% | 62.50% | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Underemployment Rate | — | 7.30% | 7.30% | — |
| 4/5/2024 | Consumer Credit | $15.000b | — | $19.495b | — |
| 4/8/2024 | NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Expectations | — | — | 3.04% | — |
| 4/9/2024 | NFIB Small Business Optimism | 90 | — | 89.4 | — |
| 4/10/2024 | MBA Mortgage Applications | — | — | -0.60% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | CPI MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | CPI YoY | 3.50% | — | 3.20% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | 3.70% | — | 3.80% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | CPI Index NSA | 312.073 | — | 310.326 | — |
| 4/10/2024 | CPI Core Index SA | — | — | 315.565 | — |
| 4/10/2024 | Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY | — | — | 1.10% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | Wholesale Trade Sales MoM | — | — | -1.70% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | Wholesale Inventories MoM | — | — | 0.50% | — |
| 4/10/2024 | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | — | — |
| 4/10/2024 | Monthly Budget Statement | — | — | -$296.3b | — |
| 4/11/2024 | PPI Final Demand MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.60% | — |
| 4/11/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/11/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM | — | — | 0.40% | — |
| 4/11/2024 | PPI Final Demand YoY | — | — | 1.60% | — |
| 4/11/2024 | PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY | — | — | 2.00% | — |
| 4/11/2024 | PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY | — | — | 2.80% | — |
| 4/11/2024 | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — | 221k | — |
| 4/11/2024 | Continuing Claims | — | — | 1791k | — |
| 4/12/2024 | Import Price Index MoM | 0.30% | — | 0.30% | — |
| 4/12/2024 | Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| 4/12/2024 | Import Price Index YoY | — | — | -0.80% | — |
| 4/12/2024 | Export Price Index MoM | 0.20% | — | 0.80% | — |
| 4/12/2024 | Export Price Index YoY | — | — | -1.80% | — |
| 4/12/2024 | U. of Mich. Sentiment | 78.7 | — | 79.4 | — |
| 4/12/2024 | U. of Mich. Current Conditions | — | — | 82.5 | — |
| 4/12/2024 | U. of Mich. Expectations | — | — | 77.4 | — |
| 4/12/2024 | U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.90% | — |
| 4/12/2024 | U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation | — | — | 2.80% | — |
